Will the initiation of construction on the 1,078 miles Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project sound the death knell for India’s age-old strategic relationship with Russia?
As India’s Vice President Hamid Ansari, in company with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and heads of state of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, broke the ground for the ambitious energy project, which is expected to meet the demands of energy-hungry India and other regional countries, many believe New Delhi has successfully jumped into America’s “New Great Game” bandwagon, seeking to prevent Russia from exploiting the critical tool of energy to strategically control central, south and southwest Asian geopolitics.
And there are valid reasons for such assumption because TAPI straddles one of the most volatile regions in the world, with 830 kilometers or approximately half the total length of the pipeline lying in war-ravaged Afghanistan. After all, why would any nation root for a crucial energy project whose fate remains linked to restoration of peace in a land where anarchy is the order of the day and frequent suicide attacks adds to the existing volatility? It is easy and simple and one need not be a strategic expert to unearth the motive behind New Delhi plumping for TAPI without conducting worthwhile internal debate and discussions on the merit of such a project from a safety and security standpoint.
As the saying goes, playing the great strategic game calls for grit, ability of sound calculations, capacity to take calculated risks and most importantly a dogmatic determination to win at all costs, whatever the odds. And Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unflinching loyalists claim, their political idol is that risk-taker who has gone beyond normal bilateral discourse to deal with Central Asian nations from a strategic perspective, taking into account politico-strategic developments in the extended Eurasian arena. Modi supporters argue that the Eurasian region is such a complicated strategic space that countries like India must align with either or all the major stakeholders to get a strong and permanent toehold especially after the mighty Soviet Union’s dissipation. And hence, there is nothing wrong in New Delhi silently supporting the sole world superpower America’s agenda to somehow try and detach the Eurasian strategic zone from Russia’s sphere of influence.
Historically, this has been a region where major players never allowed competing states or unfriendly forces to exercise a dominating influence due to strategic security concerns. Besides, Modi supporters contends, the Central Asian nations are themselves more than happy to welcome America with open arms because they consider Washington to be the only strategic leverage against both Russian and Chinese expansionist design in the post-Cold War era.
Under the given circumstances, the two longstanding strategic allies, India and Russia, are undoubtedly moving along strategic trajectories that are unlikely to converge in the immediate future. With Washington quite successfully manipulating India’s foreign policy in a subtle manner, who knows Moscow and New Delhi would someday run into each other as their rivalry intensifies?
True, America has been the strongest advocate of TAPI project, as it is a key factor for the successful implementation of the “New Silk Road” initiative announced by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during her July 2011 India trip. Apparently, the American administration wants to view this historic trade route in the modern context and exploit its immense potential by connecting the economies in central Asia with India’s thriving markets via Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Amid continuous pandemonium in Hindukush region, Washington was seeking to expedite energy and economic cooperation in such a way that it can help foster peace between the South Asian rivals — India and Pakistan — as well as improve the chances of genuine reconciliation in embattled Afghanistan. TAPI was promoted as that opportunity which could benefit all the regional stakeholders in the form of transit trade and huge monetary investments. Indeed, the $10 billion natural gas pipeline can potentially alter the politico-economic environment of a region, which is in dire need of prosperity. TAPI is projected as a win-win opportunity for all shareholders, especially for Pakistan and India, as these two neighbors have locked their horns in a bitter strategic game in Asia’s severely bleeding heart, Afghanistan. While TAPI can not only incentivize greater political and economic interaction between Afghanistan and Pakistan, in the backdrop of deep-rooted mistrust between the two nations over terrorism and trade issues, the audacious energy project can also revitalize the sagging relationship between New Delhi and Islamabad, thus eliminating chances of armed confrontation between these two nuclear powers in future.
Moreover, TAPI is all set to be the fulcrum of a future Indo-Pakistan bilateral deal that eases trade restrictions, liberalizes the stringent visa regime and promote people-to-people contact at the ground level. No doubt, TAPI is one project that is capable of ushering an honest heart-to-heart relationship between the people in South Asia, divided by fences and frequently instigated by warmongers. As rightly pointed out by Ansari, TAPI is one of those great concepts in regional cooperation that has never materialized. And this is the most opportune moment for fulfilling the idea of integrating south and central Asia, so as to form an economic belt that stretches from the Bay of Bengal to Caspian Sea. Ansari believes the launch of TAPI will help erase “an alien script written in the ink of imperialism.” But given TAPI’s centrality in America’s geostrategic-cum-energy objectives, the joint energy project may well turn into another hegemonic tool for maintaining global dominance.
