Trump unleashed

US President Donald Trump chose Saudi Arabia as the first destination this month in his inaugural foreign trip since last year’s surprising election. The pomp and ceremony of red-carpet treatment and lavish banquets will surely come as a welcome break for him from the storm clouds that have gathered over Washington D.C.

Trump has left behind a seemingly endless series of controversies that show no sign of being resolved. The 45th US president’s decision to fire FBI Director James Comey has been followed by accusations of Trump trying to influence investigations into Gen. Mike Flynn and passing confidential information to the Russians.

The visit to Saudi Arabia is a chance for the US to show what kind of global leadership we can expect from Washington over the next four years.

As is fitting for a president who during his time as a real estate businessman pushed to build the biggest building in New York, the framing of Trump’s visit to the Kingdom is promising big things.

White House officials have briefed that the trip will see the launch of a new security infrastructure for the region that could be on the scale of an “Arab NATO.” This surprised observers who followed Trump’s frequent criticism of NATO, but as ever his defining characteristic to date has been his unpredictability.

The need for a beefed-up means of addressing the region’s security challenges is currently defined by two tracks. One is the challenge of non-state groups. The global coalition against Daesh has made significant inroads into the territory that was under its black flag in Iraq and Syria, yet big questions remain as to the future governance of the liberated areas.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia remains bogged down in a conflict in Yemen that still lacks any sense of a resolution. Trump launched the first military operation of his presidency in Yemen, and is close to agreeing arms deals worth billions with the Kingdom.

The second track is the continued cold war between Riyadh and Tehran. Trump’s derisive comments on the Iran nuclear deal have been part of a steady stream of strong language coming out of the White House toward Tehran. Saudi Arabia will expect more, as well as practical steps to push back against continued Iranian expansionism.

This may come in more detail as to the kind of red lines the Trump administration has on Iran’s behavior, with the missile strike in Syria evidence of his willingness to back his words with actions.

But a desire for a return to a more traditional form of US involvement in the Middle East, along the lines of previous Republican administrations, is still a far-from-certain outcome. Trump’s unpredictability, demonstrated in his huge pivots on China and NATO, make the US a hugely powerful but unreliable ally at this time.

Regional states will look on with interest as to Trump’s strategic and tactical approach to his time in Saudi Arabia. Reports ahead of the NATO Summit speak of officials concerned with overly long meetings, and the potential for a president to lose attention or show signs of annoyance.

Joint press conferences, photo shoots and public appearances will be carefully choreographed. The trip itself sees a choreography that will take Trump onto meetings in Israel, and there is speculation that the self-described ultimate deal-maker could reignite the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002.

But this remains a long shot considering the historical sensitivities and complexity in play. Trump is unlikely to embrace the time-consuming shuttle diplomacy needed to make progress, and his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson does not seem sufficiently empowered to do so on his behalf.

So instead, the Trump trip will likely be defined by financial and military deals, as well as a commitment to stronger relationships than those offered over the past eight years. Reports suggest that the combined package of all these deals could reach $1 trillion, a hugely symbolic commitment that Trump would shout from the hilltops about.

This may be exactly what Riyadh is hoping for, but what remains a concern for all is unforeseen events, or whether Trump’s problems back home follow him and continue to dominate the agenda.

• James Denselow is a writer on Middle East politics and security issues, and a director of the New Diplomacy Platform (NDP). He has worked extensively in the Middle East, including research for foreign policy think tank Chatham House, and has advised the British government on its policy toward the Arab Spring. He is a research associate at the Foreign Policy Centre (FPC), and a fellow at the Centre for Syrian Studies (CSS).

• Published in agreement with Asharq Al-Awsat