
It seems that the Turkish parliamentary election held Sunday is all about the future of the country and in particular the future of its democracy.
For many observers, the election is more of a referendum on whether President Erdogan can introduce constitutional changes to place the country on a different course. Explicit in Erdogan’s statements is his desire to change the constitution.
However, he will not be able to do so unless his party wins a landslide and passes the 367-deputy threshold needed to amend the constitution.
Erdogan has for a while been pushing for changing the political system into a presidential one. Despite the marked economic successes of Turkey under the leadership of Erdogan, it appears that voters cannot give a blank check to the AKP. Winning 367 seats and more is less likely especially when other players have entered the political fray. The pro-Kurdish party HDP has decided to contest the elections as an independent party in order to be able to pass the 10 percent threshold needed to get representation in the Turkish parliament.
Should the HDP succeeds in passing the 10 percent threshold in this elections, then Erdogan’s scheme of changing the parliamentarian system into a presidential one will be dealt a severe blow. Its leader, Selahattin Demirtas, has been doing well in the run up to elections and it seems that his success can be a game changer for the Kurdish minority.
Seen in this way, one can argue that the current elections are the most important in decades. Many vital issues are at stake. Thus far, the AKP is poised to win the elections.
It transpired that the AKP’s rivals have little in terms of economic programs to offer the voters. For this reason, they warn voters from the dangers of autocracy. They painted elections as if it is about how much power Erdogan could wield and how this change will affect the prosperity of the country and its reputation as a functioning democracy. Their message resonates well even among some of Erdogan’s fans who believe that Turkey should keep a democratic system with checks and balances.
If Erdogan’s party fail to pass the needed threshold there is yet another chance to affect the desired change through referendum. But again this needs a majority of 330 deputies in the parliament, not a small number for any party to muster.
I don’t want to make prediction, but it seems that it is not going to be an easy step for Erdogan.







