There has been talk of Turkey’s intent to enter northern Syria since the start of the revolution four years ago. However, the hopes of Syrians who appealed to Turkey to help them against the brutality of the Assad regime were dashed.
This time, statements on entering northing Syria are clear, as Turkey has said it will not allow a Kurdish corridor along its southern border. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said his country will not keep silent over demographic changes in Syria, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkey will protect its borders. These statements were made following a meeting of high-ranking civil and security officials to discuss developments in Syria.
Turkey now has two neighbors, Daesh and Syrian-Kurdish forces, which are expanding. Turkey’s entry into Syria seems to have become acceptable by various powers, including NATO, of which Turkey is a member. The Turks have incentives to invade, but have delayed for domestic and foreign reasons.
Turkey has watched while Syria has changed demographically and geographically, and it is the biggest loser in what is happening in its southern neighbor. Syrian refugees are flooding Turkey, threatening its security, resources and demography.
Almost all Syrian opposition forces except for Daesh want Turkish intervention, as they view their northern neighbor as the only party capable of altering the balance of power in Syria in their favor. Now it seems that the United States does not mind a Turkish intervention against Daesh. The plan may develop into establishing a buffer zone in which refugees gather on the Syrian side of the border.
Parties that oppose Turkish intervention are the Syrian regime and its Iranian ally, although the latter has more than 30,000 fighters organized in extremist Shiite Lebanese, Iraqi, Iranian and Afghan militias. Iraq too is against Turkish intervention. What is significant is that this time Iran has uncharacteristically and positively hinted via an official’s statement that Turkey has the right to enter Syria to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish corridor. The Iranians, like the Turks, fear that this corridor is a plan to establish an independent Kurdish state that threatens the unity of Iran, Turkey and Iraq.
The Syrian Kurds have grown stronger and braver now that they control parts of the border with Turkey, and particularly following their victory in the city of Tal Abyad, a victory that surprised the Turks. Another aspect that poses a threat to Turkey is Daesh’s success in seizing the border town of Kobani. Many western governments have warned their citizens against traveling to Turkey for fear of Daesh attacks. The warning was issued a day before Daesh attacked a Tunisian resort. Social networking websites are full of Daesh threats against the Turkish government and the fierce criticism of Erdogan.
If the Turks enter northern Syria, this will probably be supported by most Arab and some Muslim countries, and probably by Washington as well. The West does not have a better option than Turkey as the former realizes it cannot send forces to Syria, and Daesh now poses a global threat. At the same time, the Syrian regime has been severely weakened, and the militias affiliated with Iran have failed at their task despite their great numbers.
Turkey’s entry into Syria does not mean going as far as Damascus or other major cities. According to Turkish media reports, what is being discussed is entering a 50-kilometer area inside Syria to secure borders, deter Daesh and provide a political atmosphere for new negotiations to decide the fate of governance in Syria.
