Seeing young people standing against authority to defend their rights is, for most of us, heartwarming. We love to cheer on the underdog; we admire those who put their lives on the line ostensibly for freedom as the youth of Hong Kong is doing today. Those are visceral human responses fueled by emotion and high ideals.
But as history clearly tells us, youth movements using the tool of civil disobedience to force change, are rarely successful. The most recent example is Kiev’s uprising that triggered a series of events resulting in Russia’s annexation of Crimea and a bloody civil war in eastern Ukraine. And can the Arab Spring be judged a success by any stretch of the imagination when Libya, Syria and Yemen are placed under a “before and after” microscope?
The word change has an optimistic ring to it, but we forget that while change can produce something better, it can also lead to something much, much worse. It’s interesting to note that students are almost always at the forefront of such demonstrations. Rebellion is built into the DNA of the young along with the kind of bravado that says, “I’m indestructible. It can’t happen to me,” which is why they’ll brave teargas and throw themselves in front of tanks. The older generation tends to be more cautious and, in many cases, rightly so, because where the young concentrate on the battle, wiser middle-aged heads either have self-preservation uppermost or instinctively know that the endgame may not be as pretty as protesters caught-up in the drama envisage.
The scenario currently playing-out in the former British colony Hong Kong, transferred to Chinese sovereignty on July 1, 1997 under a one-country two-systems principle guaranteeing the preservation of Hong Kong’s traditional way of life for 50 years, is not only doomed to failure.
Until now, the mainland has taken a relative softly-softly stance.
The bottom line is that Beijing cannot afford to give in to protesters’ demands — the resignation of the city’s chief executive Leung Chun-Ying and the democratic right to choose candidates for the 2017 election without Beijing’s approval — because doing so, would set a precedent likely to be emulated by disaffected populations in other Chinese territories. The Chinese government has told the West to refrain from criticizing its handling of what it terms “illegal acts.” And there’s little doubt that if push comes to shove and protest leaders implement their threat of paralyzing state institutions and business, Beijing will authorize a crackdown on those vowing “to fight forever” whether Washington and its allies like it or not.
In the meantime, the Chinese authorities are playing a waiting game in the expectation of a major rift between the protest movement and the business community, which has been suffering financial pain. Beijing has halted tour groups from traveling from mainland China to Hong Kong, many retail stores have been forced to close and the normal business day has been broadly disrupted. Some companies have obliged their staff to take annual leave. Moreover, there’s a groundswell of ordinary folk who are fed up of being prevented from following their daily routine. Bloomberg quotes research analyst Dylan Loh saying, “The longer this drags on, the more discontent there will be from the average Joe. We are seeing normal Hong Kongers start to raise their opposition to the protesters. Their daily lives — sending kids to school, going to work — are all becoming more problematic.”
The jury’s still out on how this push for democracy will end. Chun-Ying has warned that “all necessary actions” would be taken to ensure government employees would resume work this week, without specifying details.
If that can be interpreted to mean the forcible break-up of protests, such an action may amount to a rallying call. Chun-Ying’s resignation might diffuse the situation and permit demonstrators to save face. But if their holding out for their 2017 election demands to be met, they’re on a sticky wicket.
Ultimately, protesters should pick their battles more carefully. In Hong Kong, this is one they will not be allowed to win. Hong Kong politician and associate professor in social work at the University of Hong Kong, Dr. Law Chi-Kwong, wrote to the South China Morning Post, warning, “Things can turn very drastic within the next couple of hours. I am begging everyone I know to leave…I believe no one in Hong Kong can stop what may happen in the next couple of hours. I beg with tears.”
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