The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing the most crucial political challenge since its government took office nearly 15 months ago: The assembly elections in Bihar, India’s second largest province.
Scheduled to be held in October — though exact dates are yet to be announced — the election is politically important: It’s a virtual referendum on the Modi model of governance. A win will consolidate Modi’s position in India; a defeat will puncture the huge mandate that the BJP had got in the parliamentary election, virtually a no-trust vote on Modi politics.
A win would strengthen Modi’s hands no end making him even more powerful leader. But if he loses the election, the prime minister would inevitably suffer a loss of face before the international community during his upcoming numerous foreign trips.
Importance of the election cannot be indeed understated. The BJP needs this shot in the arm desperately. But the opposition is even more desperate.
There are three principal players in Bihar’s political space today — the ruling Janata Dal (United) of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, former Chief Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the BJP — not necessarily in that order. The Congress has long been reduced to the status of a fringe player in the Bihar polity.
While the ruling party is taking on the opposition in a determined and bold fashion, the opposition has agreed to a concrete seat sharing formula. Under this arrangement, which was finalized this Wednesday, JD (U) and RJD will contest hundred seats each and the Congress will contest on 40 seats in the 243-seat assembly.
This is a major breakthrough for the opposition parties in the state, which were in disarray and looking for some sort of electoral agreement before the upcoming crucial election. Needless to say, this is the biggest threat to the BJP, which however still has advantages of being a monolith party and that of ruling at the center.
The BJP is aware of the political importance of winning Bihar. The severe setback it received in losing Delhi polls in a humiliating fashion earlier this year at the hands of a three-year-old Aam Aadmi Party can be reversed if they could win the state polls.
The election is significantly closely related to national politics. The BJP government at the center is being stonewalled at every step by the sulking Congress and its friends in Parliament. And to have leverage in Parliament, Modi would need to have control over Rajya Sabha, the upper house. But this is easier said than done.
To get a complete control of Rajya Sabha, the ruling party will have to win every state assembly election over the next three years. This is practically impossible and the past track record of how various states have performed electorally shows this.
The BJP has therefore begun reaching out to the people of Bihar in earnest.
Modi stirred the hornet’s nest at a public rally by deriding Nitish by questioning his “DNA,” which has gone down well with the people.
His remarks, “Something is wrong with the DNA of this man (Nitish),” has produced contrary results.
Taking umbrage at the remark, the wily Nitish has sent the ball back in Modi’s court by launching a ‘shabd wapasi” (withdraw the words) program; and his party JD(U) has embarked on a drive of collecting five million DNA samples of Biharis and sending them to Modi.
The remark has backfired as the Modi went overboard in his zeal to castigate his arch-rival, Chief Minister Nitish, an old ally of the BJP till Modi took control of the party. The BJP leader had also charged that Bihar was a backward state, a blame Nitish rebuffed and has advised Modi to check his facts.
Nitish has taken the battle right inside the Modi camp and that too in the characteristic manner by turning the whole political discourse to an assault on the Bihari pride. He pooh-poohed Modi for running a government that responds only on Twitter and described the central government as “the Union Twitter Government.”
It is a fast-changing political scenario in Bihar, the results of assembly elections would shape and determine the political future of Modi and the opposition. However, the fact remains that the Modi magic has lost sheen over the past 14 months. Yet time will tell who wins and who loses in this politically volatile state later this year.
