That Egypt is politically polarized is a commonplace of outside commentators. The two big Cairo protest camps of supporters of ousted President Muhammad Mursi are seen as proof positive that there is a deep political split among Egyptians. Yet this analysis that the country is riven by deep rivalries bears closer examination, because, for the moment at least, it could very well be wrong.
It should not be forgotten that many of those who two months ago were protesting Mursi’s lackluster and fumbling administration, were also on the streets just over two years ago alongside many of those who are today demonstrating against Mursi’s overthrow. They were united in February 2011 against a repressive military-backed dictatorship. They are probably even now united in their fear that the military has effectively mounted a counter-revolution.
The Romans very adroitly exercised the doctrine of “Divide and Rule” and there will be those who suspect that this is just what Egypt’s top brass are doing today. Politicians of all political hues, who once shared the ambition of getting Egypt’s generals out of the political process, are all in danger of being seriously outmaneuvered. The so-called “liberals” and “secularists,” led by the likes of Mohamed ElBaradai, who have been included in the interim government, are actually on the verge of being every bit as disenfranchised as Mursi supporters feel they are now. And they themselves probably suspect this very strongly.
Therefore both sides still have a common cause. They both share the vision of a liberated Egypt, free of the “Deep State” that has run it for some 60 years.
Yet encouraged by the generals, the Ministry of the Interior, which seems to be reviving its former role as the source of so much physical repression of opposition, is warning that unless Mursi’s supporters disperse, they will be broken up forcibly.
If this happens, it will be a disaster for Egypt and for all who long for a non-military political future. The savagery that will accompany the clearing of demonstrators will for sure persuade many, maybe the majority, that it is time to give up open protest and keep their heads down at home. It will however convince a minority that only organized violence is the answer to the repressive government. There will be attacks and bombing and murders and political assassinations. And as the instability increases, all peace-loving Egyptians will find themselves turning, however reluctantly, to the military to provide security and hopefully some form of stability in the face of an armed insurrection.
And it can be certain that while the armed forces will score some high profile victories against Muslim Brotherhood “terrorists,” they will never manage to destroy them completely, thus justifying their continued dominance of Egyptian politics, possibly for years to come.
This week’s international efforts to mediate have been well meaning but were probably doomed from the outset. Indeed, given the warnings on Thursday from Brussels and Washington that the country was now confronted by “a dangerous stalemate,” the outside interventions may have actually done more harm than good. The failure of American and European diplomats and politicians to bring the rival parties together was pretty well predictable. America and Europe are working their own agendas — their main concern is that they do not want more trouble in the region. And whatever their protests about even-handedness, it is almost certain that they were hoping for a deal that would minimize the danger that in their view, the Muslim Brotherhood represents to their interests. Thus their earnest participation in the past few days has served little good, except perhaps to have delayed the Ministry of Interior’s assault of the Mursi demonstrators.
This is an Egyptian problem which can only be solved successfully by Egyptians themselves. And indeed there is a hugely potent move that could be taken now, that could stop a bloody showdown in Cairo which will plunge the country into chaos.
It is time for Egyptians to rediscover the unity of February 2011. The Muslim Brotherhood’s political opponents, led by politicians like ElBaradei, who are now in this so-called interim government, should march in their thousands, in their tens of thousands, to join with those protesting Mursi’s ouster. Let all parts of the political spectrum stand together, because they all agree on one single core point — they do not want the military returning to run the country.
Then let the generals try to unleash Ministry of Interior units on the vast crowds and see if they can order their conscript troops to open fire.
The triumph of such unity over the military would at least give the politicians the chance to start over, having hopefully all learned from the serious mistakes of the last two years.
Editorial: Stalemate pushes Egypt to the brink
