Egypt delivers a drive to contain population boom, but are there any takers?

A doctor displays contraceptives at a family planning clinic in Cairo. (Reuters)
Updated 07 September 2017

Egypt delivers a drive to contain population boom, but are there any takers?

CAIRO: Questions are being asked about the effectiveness of government initiatives to control Egypt’s population boom.
Since the 1980s, Egypt has struggled to control rapid population growth, with consecutive governments complaining about the resulting economic burden.
In 2016 alone, Egypt saw the birth of 2.6 million babies, the country’s statistics agency CAPMAS said.
The Health Ministry launched Operation Lifeline last month, to educate people in rural areas about birth control and family planning.
Egypt is the most populous Arab country, with 93 million citizens. That figure is set to grow to 128 million by 2030 if the fertility rate of four births per 1,000 women continues, according to government figures.
“Previous government efforts didn’t fail to curb population growth, otherwise we could’ve surpassed the current figures,” Ayman Zohry, a population and migration expert, told Arab News.
The population grew drastically in the wake of the 2011 uprising and subsequent years of social unrest, he said.
“Every birth averted will be very important to Egypt,” Zohry added, citing the serious implications of overpopulation on national development and security.
The Health Ministry aims to reduce the birth rate to 2.4 and save the government up to 200 billion Egyptian pounds ($11.3 billion) by 2030, Reuters reported.
The ministry will deploy 12,000 family-planning advocates to 18 rural provinces, but gave no details about how it will attract more women to the program.
Said Sadek, a professor of political sociology in Cairo, said to attract people in rural areas to family-planning programs, the government has to understand their perception of wanting to have more children, and how they view large families as a sign of economic strength.
“We’ve seen the upper and middle classes of Egyptian society respond to family planning, but we fail to see the effectiveness of government programs in rural areas, where a family could have six children born to uneducated parents,” he told Arab News.
“To address an issue this big, the government needs to reach opinion leaders in those areas who have the power to convince people of the importance of birth control.”
In previous attempts, Sadek said the government sent representatives who were strangers to rural communities to tell them not to have a lot of children.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi last month said the current population growth rate poses a threat to national development.
“The two biggest dangers that Egypt faces throughout its history are terrorism and population growth, and this challenge decreases Egypt’s chances of moving forward,” he said.
Several MPs have recently called for programs to limit the number of children per family. Some say families with more than three children should be deprived of government support for education and subsidized goods and public services.
“People should understand that rapid population growth has serious implications on the country’s economy, and thus will affect the current and coming generations,” Sadek said.
“Only a strong government can apply strict regulations on families that have more children by cutting subsidies.”
But Zohry said the government should not blame parents for having children, and cutting state support for non-abiding families punishes the newborn, not the parents. Such “negative incentives” will not succeed, he added.
Instead, the government should educate people, especially women, and improve reproductive health care, he said.
The Health Ministry runs nearly 6,000 family-planning clinics, where women receive free check-ups and can buy heavily subsidized contraceptives ranging from condoms at 0.10 Egyptian pounds to copper intrauterine devices at 2 Egyptian pounds.
Besides people in rural areas viewing large families as a source of economic strength, there is also resistance to birth control due to a belief that it is unlawful in Islam to aim to conceive a specific number of children.
But Egypt’s Al-Azhar, a 1,000-year-old seat of Islamic learning, said family planning is not forbidden.


Will European arms ban impact Turkey’s Syria operation?

Updated 14 October 2019

Will European arms ban impact Turkey’s Syria operation?

  • Several European countries imposing weapons embargoes on Turkey

ANKARA: With an increasing number of European countries imposing weapons embargoes on Turkey over its ongoing operation in northeastern Syria, Ankara’s existing inventory of weapons and military capabilities are under the spotlight.

More punitive measures on a wider scale are expected during a summit of EU leaders in Brussels on Oct. 17.

It could further strain already deteriorating relations between Ankara and the bloc.

However, a EU-wide arms embargo would require an unanimous decision by all the leaders.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned last week of a possible refugee flow if Turkey “opened the doors” for 3.6 million Syrian refugees to go to Europe — putting into question the clauses of the 2016 migration deal between Ankara and Brussels.

“The impact of EU member states’ arms sanctions on Turkey depends on the level of Turkey’s stockpiles,” Caglar Kurc, a researcher on defense and armed forces, told Arab News.

Kurc thinks Turkey has foreseen the possible arms sanctions and stockpiled enough spare parts to maintain the military during the operation.

“As long as Turkey can maintain its military, sanctions would not have any effect on the operation. Therefore, Turkey will not change its decisions,” he said.

So far, Germany, France, Finland, the Netherlands and Norway have announced they have stopped weapons shipments to fellow NATO member Turkey, condemning the offensive.

“Against the backdrop of the Turkish military offensive in northeastern Syria, the federal government will not issue new permits for all armaments that could be used by Turkey in Syria,” German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told German newspaper Bild am Sonntag.

Following Germany’s move, the French government announced: “France has decided to suspend all export projects of armaments to Turkey that could be deployed as part of the offensive in Syria. This decision takes effect immediately.”

While not referring to any arms embargo, the UK urged Turkey to end the operation and enter into dialogue.

Turkey received one-third of Germany’s arms exports of €771 million ($850.8 million) in 2018. 

According to Kurc, if sanctions extend beyond weapons that could be used in Syria, there could be a negative impact on the overall defense industry.

“However, in such a case, Turkey would shift to alternative suppliers: Russia and China would be more likely candidates,” he said.

According to Sinan Ulgen, the chairman of the Istanbul-based EDAM think tank and a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, the arms embargo would not have a long-term impact essentially because most of the sanctions are caveated and limited to materials that can be used by Turkey in its cross-border operation.

“So the arms embargo does not cover all aspects of the arms trade between Turkey and the EU. These measures look essentially like they are intended to demonstrate to their own critical publics that their governments are doing something about what they see as a negative aspect of Turkey’s behavior,” he told Arab News.

Turkey, however, insists that the Syria operation, dubbed “Operation Peace Spring,” is undeterred by any bans or embargoes.

“No matter what anyone does, no matter if it’s an arms embargo or anything else, it just strengthens us,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told German radio station Deutsche Welle.