Nitish Kumar — who has just taken over as Bihar chief minister for a record fifth time after his grand alliance’s sterling performance in state assembly elections — may change political equations in India in the coming years. His impressive rise would inevitably make him the go-to man for non-Congress, non-BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) parties and he may emerge as their new pivot in the 2019 general elections.

The talk of the town after Bihar results is whether Nitish would emerge as prime ministerial candidate in the next general election, which has to be completed before May 2019. There is a great possibility of that happening and yet, as they say, there are many a slip between the cup and the lip for him.

Nitish may be the acceptable face for non-BJP and non-Congress parties, a political bloc better known as the Third Front, which always pops up just before general elections and gets dissipated equally fast.

Though there is good time left, 42 months to be precise, before next general elections fall due, the political churning will start in the first half of 2018.

Interestingly, he may well find himself at complete variance with the junior partner of his ruling grand alliance in Bihar, the Congress party. The Congress will definitely not like him to see in the prime ministerial race for the obvious reason, as its top leader Rahul Gandhi will be its PM face.

The case of his other ally, Lalu Prasad Yadav, leader of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is more complicated. It would suit Lalu perfectly if Nitish is “kicked up” for bigger political role, as he then could get his sons and daughter firmly entrenched in the state politics. That is because Lalu himself has been convicted on corruption charges and under new Indian laws he is debarred from contesting elections till 2019, a bar that can well extend for six more years thereafter.

Therefore, Lalu has no option but to bat for his next generation. He would also be under great family pressure to learn a thing or two from another regional satrap Mulayam Singh Yadav, chief of the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh. The two feudal lords are now close relatives because of marital relations between their families.

Mulayam Singh Yadav took a far-sighted decision three years ago when he nominated his son Akhilesh Yadav for the chief minister’s post despite family bickering and jealousy from his brothers. Young Akhilesh has done reasonably well for himself, though father Mulayam keeps giving him tongue lashing from time to time. For example, last year Mulayam told his son why in his reign there were so many foundation-stone laying ceremonies and why so few inaugurations of completed projects.

With this clever decision, Mulayam became UP’s Sonia Gandhi — all power but no accountability. Moreover, he has the pleasure and privilege of seeing his next generation establishing itself during his own lifetime, something, which his bete noire Mayawati of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is deprived of, as she is a spinster.

Now coming back to Nitish after this brief digression about Mulayam, Lalu Yadav should be supportive of Nitish Kumar being projected as prime ministerial candidate. Apart from his family getting the much needed open field in Nitish’s absence, Lalu also gets to play Sonia Gandhi with Nitish if he becomes the prime minister eventually.

But this is easier said than done. The first big test for Nitish is to ensure that he and Lalu stay together till the time of next general elections. This is not impossible but definitely an uphill task despite the fact that Lalu knows that it would be his funeral if he were to rock the boat of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

The biggest challenge for Nitish Kumar will come from the Congress party. Indian polity has seen that third front leaders are seldom given the reins of power by the electorate. More so in 2019 when the electorate is getting wiser and wiser by the day.

By that reckoning the Congress will be the only challenge before Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP. Going by the typical Indian electoral trend of what goes up must come down, Modi’s chances of a re-election won’t be as strong as 2014. But Modi will probably continue to be a potent force who would be hard to be beaten by a divided opposition.

Nitish and Congress would know that they need each other. But Nitish being a regional leader may have to give up his PM aspirations and perhaps Rahul Gandhi may have to accommodate him as deputy PM candidate for the sake of the opposition’s solidarity.