Let me state the obvious and say that hard-liners in Iran are not upbeat about the Iranian negotiating team signing the framework agreement with the six world powers. Iran had to make tremendous concessions to secure the deal. Perhaps, the best line to describe the shock of the radical forces in Iran is written by the editor of the hard-line Iranian newspaper Kayhan who said, “We gave away a saddled horse and received only broken reins in return.”
Such a statement highlights the degree of frustration on the part of the radical forces within the ruling elite in Iran. On the other hand, the deal was greeted with jubilation in Tehran. We have seen many Iranians dancing in the streets of Tehran expressing their happiness with the news that the sanctions are on their way to be lifted. To be sure, President Hassan Rouhani is most likely to capitalize on this interim agreement. He feels that the agreement vindicates his policy and therefore he may seek a more added political clout and this in particular will not resonate well among the radicals in the ruling institutions in Iran.
Since his elections as the president of Iran, Rouhani has chosen the path of negotiations with the P5+1. But simultaneously, he has not challenged the other regional interventionist foreign policy adopted by hard-liners. In fact, Tehran has sought to destabilize the region hoping that this would offer new opportunities for Iran to expand its influence in the region as a whole. This begs the question whether the new deal will change the power dynamics in Iran.
Paul Salem from the Middle East Institute in Washington raises the following questions: Will the nuclear deal help or harm regional stability? It is not as if Iran is trying to trade off its nuclear program with freeing its hands in the region. In fact, many wonder what Iran would do once the sanctions are lifted and billions of dollars fall in the hands of hard-liners such as the Revolutionary Guard led by Gen. Qassem Suleimani.
To be sure, Iran — which is still suffering big time from the imposed sanctions — is controlling four Arab capitals in: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Hence, Iran with more cash and no sanctions can undermine the regional stability. Is this a plausible scenario? Perhaps.
But the fact remains that in Iran, politicians jockey for sway over the country’s political compass. Thus, rifts are most likely to bubble up in the wake of the nuclear deal and the long-muted tensions within the ruling elites in Tehran will soon surface publicly. President Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif represent a popular base that has been looking forward to lifting sanctions. Against this backdrop, it seems that the moderate camp is not without ammunitions. Iran has paid dearly for a program that has caused Iran more harm than benefit. And in the end, Iran is to give up much of the program.
Rouhani can argue that his moderate foreign policy has brought Iran the cooperation of the international community. Moreover, Iran stands to win more if it revisits its regional aggressive foreign policy. It does not take a genius to figure out that Iran is facing a lot of troubles in its relations with the Sunni Arabs. For the Arabs, Iran is a genuine source of threat. There is a plethora of articles and opinions, which equate the Iranian threat to the Israeli one. The once popular Hezbollah in the Arab world, for instance, has lost its standing. Iran’s employment of all proxies — Hezbollah included — has mobilized the Arabs behind one statement: Iran is the aggressor and it should be checked. Undoubtedly, Rouhani and his team can use this agreement to further corner the radicals and hard-liners. That said, the political pendulum in Tehran can swing back and forth but an Arab policy toward Iran is needed. While the Arabs should maintain the momentum of the their proactive policy in Yemen and they should contain Iran militarily if needed, a channel of dialogue with moderate elements among the ruling elites in Tehran should be opened. It is time for the Arabs to rethink their policy options toward their foes.
