Operation Decisive Storm was launched in the early hours of last Thursday (March 26), by a sizable regional and international coalition led by Saudi Arabia, at the request of Yemen’s legitimate government and was met with wholehearted support from Yemenis in the north and south. The immediate and enthusiastic backing it has garnered represents a case of regional and international consensus we have rarely seen.
Why this consensus? Before the operation was launched, Yemenis had almost lost hope that anything could be done to stop the violence unleashed by Houthi militias after their coup on Sept. 21, 2014. The Houthis and their allies from Yemen’s former regime appeared intoxicated by power growing out of the barrel of their guns. They reneged on agreements they had previously accepted, including the GCC Initiative and its Implementation Mechanism, and the conclusions reached by the National Dialogue Conference, during which all Yemeni factions were represented, including the Houthis and former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
For nearly three years, since the GCC Initiative was signed in November 2011, and until the Houthi coup of September 2014, Yemen was held as a shining model for peaceful transition, especially after the National Dialogue Conference was concluded with a clear set of outcomes covering almost all transition issues and beyond. Those outcomes represented the clearest Yemeni political consensus. The process was supervised by President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who was elected in February 2012, with nearly seven million votes. Despite Houthi boycott of those elections, about 65 percent of the 10.25 million registered voters took part in the polls, a higher turnout rate than in previous elections. Nearly all those casting votes chose Hadi.
Until Houthi militias took over civil and military government institutions in September 2014, Yemen was well on its road to stability. The main remaining steps were three: A referendum on the draft new constitution, as well as presidential and parliamentary elections. The draft constitution was based on the consensus outlined in the National Dialogue outcomes and the elections would reflect Yemeni choices for both president and Parliament.
Apparently, Houthis and their allies feared that those elections would give them only their fair share of power, but no more. They had bigger ambitions: To rule Yemen absolutely, without regard to the wishes of the majority of Yemenis, who were clearly opposed to their fundamentalist, sectarian and provincial agenda. To fulfill that ambition, Houthis engineered their coup on Sept. 21, 2014 against the legitimate government of President Hadi. They were aided and abetted by forces loyal to former President Saleh, who ruled Yemen for 33 years (1978-2011), but had to step down in November 2011, according to the GCC Initiative, which he had personally signed.
Not only are Yemenis united against Houthi ideology and violent methods; there is also a clear regional and international consensus that we have rarely seen in other crises. The GCC has repeatedly expressed its support for Yemen’s consensus and its steps toward peace and stability, and has reaffirmed its support for Hadi, as the only legitimate authority in Yemen. The Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) did the same; the recent Arab Summit concluded on Sunday (March 29) reaffirmed that support. Since 2011, the United Nations Security Council has issued several resolutions and statements supporting transition in Yemen and endorsing the GCC Initiative and its Implementation Mechanism and the National Dialogue Conference outcomes. Like the GCC and other regional organizations, the UNSC has repeatedly declared support for President Hadi and denounced the Houthi takeover. It has also imposed sanctions, under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, on “spoilers” of Yemen’s political process, naming so far former President Saleh and a number of Houthi leaders.
It was based on that consensus that Saudi Arabia and its GCC partners agreed on March 8 on President Hadi’s request to host a conference in Riyadh, under GCC umbrella, for Yemeni political parties to put the peace process back on track. Houthis declined the invitation; instead, they accelerated their violent revolt and took over new territory, using tanks, missiles and airstrikes against their fellow citizens, with untold loss of lives. When they surrounded Aden, the temporary capital where President Hadi had sought refuge, and conducted airstrikes against the presidential palace, Hadi appealed for outside assistance. On 24 March, he sent letters to GCC leaders and UNSC, asking for military intervention. With their southward incursion, Houthi militias also provoked Saudi Arabia, moving forces to its border, conducting military exercises along the border and threatening to attack it; they had done exactly that in 2009 when they took over Saudi border posts and briefly occupied Saudi territory.
On March 26, Saudi Arabia responded to Hadi’s call with a regional and international coalition to save Aden and reverse the Houthi coup. Had Decisive Storm been delayed even a few days, Houthis could have overrun Aden and unleashed a bloody, irreversible civil war with unpredictable repercussions.
What are the goals of the alliance? What is next for Yemen? I will try to address these two questions in next week’s column.
