When former US Secretary of State Colin Powell used his years of military experience to forewarn President George W. Bush on the dangers of meddling in Iraq in 2002, did anybody realize that the adverse consequences of rushing through unavoidable regime change to bolster the fight against evil forces across the globe will continue to haunt Washington years down the line?
From Iraq to Libya and even Syria, US strategic planners have conceived blueprints of intervention without any practical understanding of the unique tribal psyche or socio-cultural attributes of the target nation and the sort of sociopolitical tensions that would be unleashed by toppling of existing governments without a proper backup plan. Indeed, Washington never had any coherent idea about how a society, rocked by bitter internal fratricide and seeking to foster egalitarian-democratic governance, could be put back to order.
As Powell admitted, the American leadership failed to recognize the fact that when a political vacuum is created in a foreign country the invading power is required to take up the mantle of governance till the time a stable and locally accepted regime could be put in place. No doubt, the highly acclaimed American defense establishment made serious error in judgment by caring very little about real humanitarianism and protection of critical infrastructure, every time troops pounced on countries with complicated social structure in the guise of humanitarian intervention.
Consequently, enthusiastic militarism incentivized elements responsible for flourishing extremism. With millions of casualties, including elderly people, women, children and newborn babies, resulting from post-intervention violence, there clearly are no real victors in these misbegotten wars. And now, Washington is being dragged into the unending vortex of violence in Libya as the US military is psychologically preparing for a long haul. Pentagon knows that a fresh intervention in Libya amounts to progression of a war that could easily spread to adjacent territories in the region, but they have little choice.
It is the US-led western alliance’s strategic aerial bombing campaign that has completely decimated the Libyan military, broken the backbone of police and ruined critical civil infrastructure assets. At this point of time Libya is governance-less despite having two governments, one backed by the international community and the other by local militias. As Libyan politicians struggle to knit together a unity government, the monstrous Daesh is fast creeping into the vacuum created by West’s lackadaisicalness. In the words of UN envoy for Libyan reconciliation Martin Kobler, the beleaguered North African country’s political process to end administrative paralysis is slower than the military expansion of Daesh.
In fact, the now cornered Al-Qaeda is also trying to take advantage of Libya’s ungoverned hinterlands, long but porous borders and huge oil reserves to revive its global fortune. Given Libya’s locational advantage, this lawless expansive territory can well become the springboard for conducting terror ambush in the rest of Africa, Europe and even parts of Asia unless sanity is restored at the earliest by encouraging the formation of a consensus government accepted by all and sundry in a deeply divided Libya. Since, Muammar Gaddafi’s deposition in 2011, an assortment of ragtag militias, often engaged in bitter fratricidal fight, are controlling the major chunk of Libyan territory. With two competing parliaments and governments staking claim as the real controller of Libyan destiny, peace brokering has become all the more difficult. When even the internationally recognized parliament is loath to accepting a UN deal on sharing power, the global political leadership needs to do something that can help create an incentive for a compromise.
A fractured Libya has already lost approximately $68 billion in oil sales — revenue that is crucial for the country’s upkeep and for whose share both governments are at loggerheads. Shockingly, the 27,000 strong and adequately armed and trained Petroleum Facilities Guard responsible for protecting the country’s oil asset is accused of siphoning supplies and abandoning territory in favor of Daesh, as the terror group tightens its hold over Libya with each passing day. None less than Mustafa Sanalla, Libya’s National Oil Corporation chief has admitted in public that this “bipartisan force has developed a vested interest in keeping the pot boiling instead of controlling chaos surrounding the country’s sole source of national wealth,” and goes on to add, “activities of the guards has adversely affected 70 percent of oil production.”
Adding to the woe, the World Health Organization has warned that the lives of millions of people needing urgent health care hangs in the balance due to the protracted civil war and resultant instability. Since the escalation of conflict in 2014 more than 3 million citizens have been badly affected, with nearly two and a half million people in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, of which 1.9 million have serious, untreated health issues. According to Health Minister Reida Oakely, Libyan health system is grappling with staff shortages due to attack on medical professionals and equipment apart from the fact that hospitals, laboratories, blood banks and allied health facilities are finding it difficult to remain functional as they face shortages in medicines and supplies.
With international aid agencies being compelled to reduce or shift staff to neighboring countries, Libya is faced with an imminent health disaster of gigantic proportion. As Libya’s agony continues endlessly and the country splits along every imaginable fracture line, it is time to search for that unifying factor which will bind the disparate native Libyan ethnicities.
