It will take time and an unprecedented collaboration between nations but the odds are stacked against Daesh, which will eventually be defeated and dismantled as an organization in Iraq and Syria. The US-led coalition and Russia’s military efforts will succeed in destroying the militant group’s infrastructure thus crippling its ability to maintain physical presence in areas under its control. Questions remain whether these countries will send troops to hunt down Daesh fighters and leaders and secure liberated towns and villages.
The task will not be easy. Experts doubt if airstrikes alone will finish the job. Daesh is weakened and its lines of communication have been cut but it remains in control in Raqqa, Der El Zour, Palmyra in Syria and in Ramadi and Mosul in Iraq. The final blow must come in the form of ground troops that will enter these cities and clear them.
But if the destruction of Daesh is inevitable, assuming that all nations will abide by their responsibilities in confronting it, what about the dynamics that created it, and other militant groups, in the first place? What if the root cause that provided the fertile environment that allowed Daesh and Al-Qaeda to flourish and expand continue to exist? Could the dynamics lead to the birth of an even more radical group in the future?
Following recent terrorist attacks in Paris, Beirut and over the Sinai, the world moved closer to create a broad front to destroy Daesh, particularly in Syria. These events also created the momentum to launch a political process to end the war in Syria. But what about Iraq? It was there that Al-Qaeda established its presence following the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime and the US occupation of Iraq. Until 2003 Iraq had no militant groups, but the US occupation and Iran’s growing influence over the Shiite political establishment in Baghdad created the need among marginalized Sunni population to embrace radical groups.
It was in Iraq that Daesh was born, right in the heart of the Sunni majority areas in Al-Anbar. The sectarian struggle in Iraq became a harbinger for a wider Sunni-Shiite confrontation that stretches from Afghanistan to Lebanon and Yemen. And when Iraq’s Sunnis were promised a more equitable political deal they joined the Awakenings movement in 2006, which drove Al-Qaeda out of their region. But they were deceived by former Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki who sought to persecute them and hunt down their leadership.
Today Iraq is a failed and corrupt state. Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi is unable to carry out his reforms. He is being challenged by Al-Maliki and pro-Iranian Shiites. The Iraqi Army is yet to liberate Ramadi after months of siege. The battle for Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city will prove more difficult. Tension between the Kurds and the central government is rife while the Sunnis continue to suffer at the hands of the so-called Mobilization Forces, which is largely Shiite. Unless the Sunni demands for a more equitable political deal are met radical groups will continue to find safe havens.
Daesh’s real strength comes from its ideological appeal. The killing of its fighters or leaders will not kill the idea so long as the dynamics remain the same. In Iraq an almost impossible task of uniting the people and ending sectarian confrontation is needed. In Syria directing the firepower against Daesh while seeking a political deal that satisfies various stakeholders, and they are many, is equally difficult.
For Europe the challenge does not end with the destruction of Daesh and other militant groups. The fact that thousands of foreign fighters, second and third generation Europeans, have chosen to join Daesh in Syria and Iraq and turn against their native countries requires some deep thinking about the factors that created this phenomenon. Destroying Deash in Iraq and Syria will not quiet European fears of Muslims in their midst. The fear of copycats or lone wolves will continue long after the militant group is neutralized.
Marginalization, discrimination and persecution are all factors that drive Sunnis in Iraq, Syria and other countries to join the militants. The dogma that Daesh is built on is remarkably simple and crude. But it appeals to thousands of disenfranchised young people who are looking for a cause.
Even when the group is destroyed in Syria and Iraq, it will continue to exist in other areas such as Sinai, Libya, Tunisia, Somalia, Nigeria and Algeria. It will find sympathizers in marginalized European neighborhoods. There will always be someone who will carry on with the message.
Meanwhile, military campaigns in Syria and Iraq must be accompanied by genuine efforts to reshape the political systems there. Iraq is a case in point and as long as the sectarian schism exists radicals, on both sides of the divide, will find reasons to embrace extremist ideologies.
