When will Decisive Storm achieve its goals? This is the main question journalists ask impatiently, especially as the operation entered its fourth week.
However, the military campaign’s goals articulated were very ambitious. They included restoring the legitimate government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, enabling it to exercise its authority throughout Yemen, and allowing civilians to resume their normal lives.
Decisive Storm was launched on March 26, 2015, at the request of President Hadi, to “protect Yemen and its people from aggression by Houthi militias,” according to a statement issued then relating Hadi’s appeal to his neighbors to “provide promptly all means and measures, including military intervention, to protect Yemen and its people” from Houthi militias, whose actions had not only destabilized Yemen, but threatened “regional and international peace and security.” In addition, Hadi asked for help in combating terrorist organizations (other than Houthi militias). The Arab Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh (Egypt) on March 29 specified three goals for Decisive Storm: Withdrawal of Houthi militias, surrendering their weapons to the legitimate government, and restoring “Yemen’s health and unity.” Endorsing the military campaign, the Arab Summit said that it would “continue until Houthi militias withdraw and surrender their weapons and until Yemen becomes strong and united again.”
Over the weeks since the launch of the campaign, one can see clear changes in the political and military situations in Yemen, although Houthi attacks have continued and they have not recognized the legitimate government or accepted United Nations' calls to lay down their arms.
What are then the next steps, besides aerial strikes, to achieve President Hadi’s vision?
It is clear that aerial strikes are only a part of the military campaign, as Decisive Storm spokesman keeps emphasizing almost daily. It is also clear that military action is just one part in an integrated set of actions that include politics, economic aid and humanitarian assistance.
Militarily, aerial strikes would become more effective in the next phase by speeding up the re-organization of Yemeni forces still loyal to President Hadi. Almost daily, new units declare their support for the government and denounce Houthi rebellion. There are no precise figures for these loyal forces, but there may be tens of thousands of those troops in different parts of Yemen. Some of them belong to units whose commanders have sided with the rebels, requiring the appointment of new commanders. Hadi has made some changes in military leadership, but a complete overhaul, including new command and control, is probably needed to expedite the integration of loyal troops into the war effort to defeat Houthi militias.
In addition, tens of thousands of seasoned tribal fighters, who have declared their loyalty to President Hadi, can be more fully integrated in the military campaign. Maarib alone has declared that it has some 35,000 fighters ready to deploy.
But military action is not an end in itself; it is one element in the equation, whose most important goal is to restore the peaceful political process that was disrupted by the Houthi coup on Sept. 21, 2014.
There is an agreed political basis in the comprehensive outcomes of the 10-month-long national dialogue, which represent a clear consensus reached by nearly all the Yemeni groups, including the Houthis who took part in that process.
The main vehicle to jump-start the political process is the Riyadh Conference, which President Hadi proposed on March 7, 2015, under GCC umbrella, calling on “all Yemeni political groups that believe in preserving Yemen’s security and stability” to take part. Houthis have declared their opposition to the Riyadh Conference, but nearly all other groups have agreed to take part. Through the conference, Yemenis could resume their deliberations to complete the political process envisioned in the GCC Initiative of 2011.
The third element is economic development, which stalled after Houthi attacks, and with it foreign aid disbursement also almost stopped. Billions of dollars were pledged to help Yemen but were not disbursed. Now some of those funds could be utilized to meet development needs outside major conflict zones.
The fourth, and most urgent, is humanitarian assistance. Houthi attacks have exacerbated an already precarious humanitarian situation in most areas. Although donors are ready to contribute, aid delivery is extremely difficult. However, there are credible organizations operating on the ground that may be able to deliver aid to some of the affected populations.
Only by integrating those four elements (military, political, economic, and humanitarian) could the campaign achieve its goals. The fact that President Hadi and his government enjoy national support, as well as regional and international goodwill, should help them put those elements to work effectively and quickly.
