Ethnicity top issue in Kenya election

ALLIANCES forged by Kenya’s main presidential contenders for elections in March are lining up a repeat of a largely ethnic-based contest for political power which exploded into bloodshed in the 2007 vote.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Kenya’s founder president, lead the two main opposing camps for the March 4 presidential and parliamentary elections.
The head-on rivalry between Kenyatta, from the predominant Kikuyu tribe, and Odinga, a Luo, raises the specter of the tribal clashes that followed the 2007 election and killed more than 1,200 people, uprooting thousands more from their homes.
“I don’t want to be a pessimist... but, historically, every time the Luo and the Kikuyu have been on different sides there has been violence,” said Mzalendo Kibunjia, who heads a national agency formed to reconcile tribes after the violence.
“What do you expect? Our politics are about ethnicity. In Africa, democracy is about ethnic arithmetic not ideology.”
Another factor that could lead to post-election instability for East Africa’s economic powerhouse is Kenyatta’s date a month after the March vote with the International Criminal Court (ICC). The former finance minister faces a trial in the Hague over his alleged role in the election violence five years ago. Should Kenyatta win the presidency and then travel to the court hearings, a power vacuum could result soon after his inauguration. The ICC accuses him of directing youth from his Kikuyu ethnic community to fight Odinga’s Luo kinsmen during the 2007/2008 bloodletting. He denies any wrongdoing.
To win in the March 4 first round, a candidate needs to gain an outright majority from the 14.3 million registered voters. An immediate victory for either contender is not assured, which could then mean a nail-biting run-off in April. Odinga leads the race according to most opinion polls, but Kenyatta is running close second. The closeness of the political contest is exacerbating the ethnic tensions, and vice-versa. Kenyan polls since independence from Britain in 1963 have often been marred by tribal violence, typically stemming from long-standing disputes over land. But the bloody feuding after the 2007 vote was by far the worst in Kenya’s history.
Luos say Odinga was robbed of victory by the incumbent, President Mwai Kibaki, a Kikuyu in a bitter and close vote. Many Kikuyus argue Odinga’s Luo tribe got off easier than they did in the ICC probe of the 2007 events, and so are determined to have the election go their way this time. There are those who believe the ICC’s pursuit of alleged ringleaders of the 2007 killings could act as a deterrent.
“I doubt there will be violence of the scale we witnessed last time. Kenyans are extremely wary of the ICC and its activities in the country,” said Ken Wafula, a rights campaigner who works in Rift Valley, epicentre of the clashes. “Fear of running foul of the ICC will serve as a restraint.” The charges from the war crimes court against Kenyatta, a deputy prime minister and scion of independence hero Jomo Kenyatta, is undoubtedly a hindrance to his presidential bid.
He has teamed up in the Jubilee alliance with former cabinet minister William Ruto, who was indicted with him by the ICC for inciting youth to fight in 2007. The other men charged are the head of the civil service, Francis Muthaura, and radio presenter Joshua Arap Sang.
Kenyatta’s arch-rival Odinga has formed a competing alliance, the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (Cord) backed by Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, to try to break the traditional Kikuyu dominance over the presidency.
Two of Kenya’s three presidents since independence have been Kikuyu, the exception being former president Daniel Arap Moi, a Kalenjin like Ruto.