Questions of war hang over Syria
The biggest question coming from the Middle East today is simple: Will there be war if the Syrian peace conference fails? The reason is that many foreign protagonists find themselves entangled in the Syrian quagmire. Battleground Syria is turning into a post-Cold War fault line involving regional opposing groups with different agendas. Bitter enemies such as Israel, on the one hand, and Iran and Hezbollah, on the other, have become stakeholders in the Syrian crisis. This fault line has lumped together the US, Europe, moderate Arab countries and Turkey against Russia, China, Iraq and Iran.
There are doubts that the proposed peace conference, called Geneva 2, will resolve the Syrian crisis. A US-Russian agreement to hold the meeting rests on principles agreed upon last summer between the two countries in Geneva.
But questions regarding the fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad and the powers that the transitional government will have remain unanswered.
President Assad, in an interview with an Argentinean newspaper this week, rejected calls for his departure. He believes that western states are looking for ways to fuel the violence, rather than stop it, and are seeking to topple his regime regardless of the toll. But more importantly he warned that the opposition is divided and that opposition leaders would be unable to implement any cease-fire measures agreed at a summit. “They are different groups and bands, not dozens but hundreds. They are a mixture and each group has its local leader. And who can unify thousands of people? We can’t discuss a timetable with a party if we don’t know who they are.” He reiterated that he will not step down and that no country can interfere in the decision of the Syrian people. To resign, he said, would be to flee.
Without a prior agreement on results the conference will certainly fail. The opposition is yet to decide if it will be willing to engage the regime in an open dialogue. On the ground battles continue in Al-Qussayr and other areas and the regime has claimed success in some regions. It is doubtful that rebel groups will adhere to a political settlement. On this point President Assad is right.
Last week’s announcement of the sale of Russian S-300 air-defense missiles to Syria raised alarm bells in Israel. On Sunday Israel renewed threats to destroy Syrian weapon depots while Damascus made it clear that it will respond by attacking Tel Aviv. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quoted as saying that “the Middle East is in one of its most sensitive periods in decades with the escalating upheaval in Syria.”
Israel launched three aerial strikes against targets inside Syria this year, but even Israeli military experts have warned that a fourth strike will not go without a Syrian response. The Sunday Times reported that reconnaissance satellites have been monitoring preparations by the Syrian army to deploy surface-to-surface Tishreen missiles. It said that Syria has put its most advanced missiles on standby with orders to hit Tel Aviv if Israel launches another raid on its territory. According to a report published in Los Angeles Times this week many Israelis “see the arms sale as a message to Israel and the West that Russia will not tolerate outside intervention in Syria.”
Israel is concerned that some of Assad’s weapons will find their way to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Elite fighters of the Shiite group have been fighting alongside regular army in Al-Qussayr and recently one of the organization’s top leaders announced that Syria has supplied Hezbollah with sophisticated weapons. Unconfirmed reports talked about Iranian military advisors working with the Syrian Army. The fate of Assad’s chemical weapons continues to alarm the US, Israel and neighboring countries.
Israel is also worried about Iran’s growing role and influence in Syria. But it has voiced concerns over the increasing number of Sunni militants fighting against the regime.
If the peace conference fails the prospects of a new confrontation between Israel and Syria will increase tremendously. In addition the specter of a protracted sectarian war in Syria will become a reality. The failure of the conference will also bolster the position of Turkey, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia (and possibly Jordan) who insist that President Assad and his close circles must have no role in the future of Syria.
Failure in Geneva will mean that the Syrian civil war will rage on unabated for some time. There is always the daunting prospect that President Assad will prevail; weakened and governing only parts of Syria, or that his enemies, including militants, will make a breakthrough and bring him down.
Regional conflagration along sectarian lines is also possible and may spill across into Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey.
Things could also get out of hand soon if Israel carries out its threat and launches a fourth strike. With his back against the wall President Assad will have to react. It is a sinister scenario that underlines the gravity of the Syrian crisis that was left untreated for too long.
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