BJP: From Vajpayee to Modi
Given the fact that Narendra Modi’s appointment as campaign manager contributed to friction within the Bharatiya Janata Party, it is very unlikely that he will be able to propel his party to victory in parliamentary elections. The chasm within the BJP led some key party leaders to stay away from the three-day party meeting held in Goa including senior BJP leader L.K. Advani who skipped such an important meeting for the first time. Soon after the meeting, Advani displayed his political muscle by resigning from all key posts of the party. The message was clear — Advani won’t tolerate being sidelined by the party. His resignation shocked BJP members and after assurances by the top BJP leadership that his concerns would be addressed, Advani agreed to withdraw his resignation. His move, however, exposed the rift within the party. Secondly, he scored over Modi in dominating the political scene and creating media hype. Had he not resigned, media would have been obsessed with Modi and his elevation in the BJP. Had the entire party adopted the same approach regarding Modi’s elevation, there would not have been any friction within BJP. But that was not the case. A few more names were mentioned including that of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan for the post that was given to Modi. Interestingly, despite there being no certainty whether BJP would win parliamentary elections, party members have begun deliberating on their prime ministerial nominee?
BJP is apparently not giving much importance to the fact that Indian politics is not a two-party affair. In fact, this country has hardly ever witnessed political battle at the national level only between two main rivals. No doubt, there was a time when the country’s politics was dominated by only one party — the Congress. But that is history now. Dominance of the Congress at the center and state level petered out as numerous regional and ethnic parties have been formed. In the present scenario, no party including the Congress or the BJP can alone form government at the center on the basis of its own strength in Parliament. Hence, the era of coalition governments is not likely to end soon.
Against this backdrop, all that can be said about some opinion polls predicting victory for BJP led by Modi is that such a forecast is based on flimsy grounds. Keeping Modi in the lead is like pushing the entire nation to a dark phase. Besides, to what extent can Indian opinion polls be believed?
Within less than a year, there have been a number of political twists and turns that have defined the course and changed the voters’ choice. An Indian voter may be expected to change his/her decision just before casting vote. In addition, most opinion polls do not represent even a percentage of the country’s electorate. Equally significant is the fact that Indian politics is not based exclusively on religious preferences.
Although several parties are giving importance to their respective religious identities, their political significance is limited. In fact, caste and regional-based politics carry greater significance than religious-based politics. In this context, it may be recalled that BJP had to put its Hindutva-agenda on the backburner to be able to head coalition government (BJP-led National Democratic Alliance). The Hindutva-agenda focuses on labeling the country as a Hindu state. Some BJP leaders are over-optimistic about Modi apparently banking on the communal aspect. They hope to gain Hindu majority votes by putting Modi at the helm. They have apparently ignored a major feature of Indian politics, that is, religious-based politics will not lead to success.
It would be more appropriate to accept that caste differences, particularly those prevailing within the Hindu community, are given greater importance in Indian politics than religious differences. There is a possibility that Modi’s own caste-background may be a factor responsible for differences within the BJP. He belongs to Other Backward Classes (OBC). Ironically, the name put forward by Advani, that of Chauhan also belongs to OBC category. BJP may be hoping that by putting forward Modi’s name, it can gain caste-based votes in states such as Uttar Pradesh. This also implies that BJP is banking on grabbing votes of other caste-based leaders from these states. The manner in which Modi visited UP in recent past suggests he wanted to become a familiar face for voters there, including OBC-vote bank. But, how can it be ignored that Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh and Bahujan Samaj Party head Mayawati have strong political bases here and they also entertain visions of heading the central government. Besides, this is an extremely complicated political strategy bearing no guarantee of any success for BJP. Even backward and scheduled castes have numerous social as well as regional divisions.
Equally significant is the political reality that in Gujarat, Modi and his party have faced rivalry from Congress. This is not true of UP and the rest of India. Even if BJP tries banking on caste politics, with Modi in the lead, the party will have to face different regional and ethnic leaders in practically every state. This is Indian politics, not confined to Gujarati limits. Modi’s impact at the national level has already begun being labeled as “NaMonia” viral within his own party. As things are unfolding, the BJP seems to have come a long way from Atal Behari Vajpayee, a moderate face of BJP, to NaMo, a much hated man, who may try to redefine the secular politics of India.
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