Egyptian crisis puts Israelis, Palestinians in a fix
US Secretary of State John Kerry’s latest attempt to get Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table has been forgotten in the huge protests that are sweeping Egypt, and the concerns of how instability in the most populous Arab country could affect its neighbors.
In Israel, the first concern is for the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, signed in 1979, and which many Israeli officials consider one of the country’s most important strategic assets. When current President Muhammad Mursi took power a year ago there were calls from his Muslim Brotherhood colleagues to cancel the treaty. Yet one of his first acts in office was to state that Egypt would respect all previously signed agreements.
Now, if Mursi is unable to reach a compromise with the demonstrators, as seems likely, the army could step in as it did when long-time autocrat Hosni Mubarak resigned in 2011. That time, the army was in control for more than 18 months.
“The military in Egypt are not from the Muslim Brotherhood but from Mubarak’s time,” Eli Shaked, who was Israel’s ambassador to Egypt from 2003-2005, said. “They understand the importance of the peace treaty and they will not allow any civilians to abrogate the treaty.”
Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007, is even more concerned by developments in Egypt than Israel is. Hamas is an offshoot of Mursi’s Muslim Brotherhood, and ties between the two countries since Mursi’s election have been close. If Mursi is forced to abdicate, Egypt’s support for Hamas could decrease.
“What’s happening is really bad news for Islamists all over the Arab world, not only Hamas in Gaza,” Basem Ezbidi, a professor of political science at BirZeit University said. “Islamists are realizing that it’s easier to criticize than to get your hands dirty with actually governing.” However, he says, there could be some good news for Palestinians. Hamas and Fatah have been unable to move toward “national reconciliation” which would pave the way for long-overdue elections in the West Bank and Gaza. Palestinians remain divided as Hamas controls Gaza, and the more moderate Fatah reigns over the West Bank. Polls show the vast majority of Palestinians want the two sides to end their feud, which began when Hamas used force to take over Gaza in 2007.
Israel has also used the internal divisions within the Palestinians as a reason not to return to the negotiating table. How can Israel even consider withdrawing from any part of land acquired in 1967 if the Palestinians cannot guarantee that their entire public would accept any peace deal.
Now, if Hamas is weakened, Ezbidi says, it could push it toward national reconciliation.
“Hamas is realizing it’s about time to get back to internal Palestinain scene and deal with questions of national unity by really showing willingness and realistic conditions,” he said. “But at the same time if Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas sees that happening he will raise his conditions and terms.”
Ezbidi says most Palestinians are apathetic and have lost any hope in a peace deal with Israel.
