Syria, Iraq: Fratricidal wars

The battlefields of Syria and Iraq have merged as opposition groups, fighting the regime of Bashar Assad, combined their efforts to drive out radical fighters belonging to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from liberated areas in the north.
In Iraq’s Anbar province local Sunni tribes came together to evict Al-Qaeda and ISIS forces from Ramadi and Fallujah. The outcome of these two confrontations will determine the course of the Syrian civil war and the fate of the dysfunctional political process in Iraq.
It is a chaotic scene in Syria. New alliances are emerging between various rebel factions as old ones crumble. Syrian rebels have gathered under the umbrella of the Islamic Front, an alliance of supposedly moderate groups, the Mujahideen Army with ties to the Syrian Free Army (SFA) and the Syria’s Thuwar or rebels. Al- Nusra Front, which is affiliated with Al-Qaeda, is yet to adopt a position on ISIS. The latter has been accused by the Syrian opposition of colluding with Damascus. It has committed atrocities against civilians and fellow rebels. Interestingly enough Al-Qaeda’s Ayman Al-Zawahri has distanced the terrorist organization from ISIS last year.
ISIS is a relative newcomer to Syria’s battlefields. It is believed to have been formed by the Syrian regime to fight the US military in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. Like Al-Nusra Front it is composed of foreign and Arab fighters. Its emir, Abu Baker Al-Baghdadi, is seeking to establish an Islamic emirate in Iraq and Syria. The Syrian opposition in exile believes it is infiltrated by the regime.
These fratricidal wars are a boon to the Assad regime, which has always claimed that it was fighting foreign militants backed by Syria’s enemies. ISIS, whose fighters control large swaths of Aleppo and Idlib, has threatened to abandon frontline posts, which could be taken over by regime forces.
In addition, Damascus warning that the crisis could spill across borders with neighboring countries has come true as the fight in Anbar demonstrates. Lebanon is another example of how the fighting between various groups in Syria can cross the porous borders. Recently militants in Jordan were reported to have vowed to transfer the fight into Lebanon as a response to Hezbollah’s military presence in Syria. Similar spillovers could threaten northern Kurdish areas between Syria and Iraq, southern Turkey and northern Jordan where radical groups have established a foothold.
What is happening in Anbar province will have an effect on the outcome of the current struggle in northern Syria. Anbar had become an important base for Al-Qaeda during the US occupation of Iraq. Sunni tribes there had offered militants refuge, but as their power grew influential sheikhs joined the awakenings movement, which drove the fighters out of the main cities in the province. The failure of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki to appease the Sunnis by including them in the political process has alienated Anbar again and allowed militants to come back.
Presently the tribes of Anbar want to drive the militants out but are wary of Al-Maliki’s plans to launch a massive military campaign against their cities. Ironically, both Assad and Al-Maliki are claiming to be fighting Al-Qaeda while pursuing policies that have brought sectarian tensions to a boiling point.
The current fighting in northern Syria is a crucial one for anti-regime rebels. It could prove to be a turning point for the opposition, which has failed to unite its forces under one banner. Eradicating ISIS will bring them together for some time, but the fact is that none believes in a political process to end the war in Syria. Even worse the political opposition in exile has little or no influence over the combatants.
In addition to this, many of the newly formed military alliances share the general goal of establishing an Islamic state in Syria. It is a far cry from the original objectives of the Syrian uprising, which declared that it wants to establish a democratic, pluralistic and civil state. Eventually the various fronts and groups on the ground will have the final say. The possibility of future internecine infightings is not farfetched.
In Iraq and Syria the threat of further weakening of the central authority of the state is now a reality. And in both the specter of sectarian confrontations on the one hand, and fratricidal killings on the other, will continue to haunt the people of these countries.
The vast area between eastern Syria and western Iraq will prove to be one of the biggest security challenges for the entire region in 2014. It is not unlikely that rebel groups of various affiliations will fight among each other for control and authority. It is a preface for partition that now threatens the geopolitical integrity of the two afflicted countries.

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