Mosul: Opening a Pandora’s box

As is known to all, in mythology “Pandora’s box” refers to a large jar that contained all the evils of the world and when it was opened, all the evils (hatred, pain, poverty, war and death) flew out. Once it was closed again, the last thing left in the box was “hope.” Long story short: It refers to an action that may be done with good intention, but leads to serious adverse consequences and becomes the “beginning of something.”
After months of intensive preparations, the long-awaited operation in Iraq’s northern city of Mosul started last week after Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi pushed the button. The aim of the operation is to clear Mosul, which is Iraq’s second largest city with a population of 1.5 million, from Daesh’s occupation.
Why is Mosul so important? Needless to say, the city has become a stronghold for Daesh in Iraq; therefore, symbolically it is very significant. It even gained more importance, after Daesh received a severe blow in religiously and historically symbolic town of Dabiq in Syria. For the regional and international powers, it is very crucial because the fate of Syria and Iraq depends on the outcome of the battle in Mosul that is now in progress. Regional heavyweights and international powers are on the same page regarding one target: To get rid of Daesh once and for all. However, changing balances in region, particularly in Syria, and approaching presidential elections in the United States put Mosul operation on the fast track. From Turkish side, the operation took place at a time when Turkey-supported Operation Euphrates Shield in Syria is under way with advances against Daesh. The start-whistle has been blown for Mosul; but the real concern is that what will happen once the city is liberated. In fact; governing Mosul will be more difficult than liberating it from the clutches of Daesh.
Before touching upon the possible consequences of Mosul operation; let’s have a look at the situation on ground in the city. The operation in Mosul has already started to affect the balances in the region. While in Syria, where there is a “war within war,” in Mosul we see “alliance within alliance.” With diverse motivations and objectives, the actors on ground are forging “temporary alliances” in the fight against the most dangerous terrorist group in the world. On the ground, there is Iraqi Army, Peshmerga, Sunni forces and Ninova Volunteers trained by Turkish troops in Bashiqa camp near Mosul, while the US-led coalition forces provide air and ground support in fight against Daesh.
Turkey, a country severely affected by Daesh attacks, is not allowed to put its boots on the ground in Mosul although Ankara has fair reasons to take part both in the ongoing operation and in the post-operation negotiations on Mosul. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that Ankara will put its Plan B into force if the international coalition does not include Turkey in the ongoing operation. Following Ankara’s intensive dialogue with Baghdad and Washington throughout last week, all sides reached a consensus on Turkish involvement in the coalition. The consensus is that Turkish warplanes would join the operations in Mosul “when necessary.”
Along with its historical aspect, Turkey is the most concerned country regarding the situation in Mosul. This Iraqi city is very significant for Turkey as it is for Iraq. First, it is a matter of national security. Secondly, border security and lastly, it is about its demography.
Ankara has already called on the international community to start drafting an international plan for Mosul to ensure the city is governed by mainly local groups so as to prevent any attempted ethnic cleansing after the city is cleared of Daesh. As of yet, it seems stakeholders in the Mosul battle don’t have a viable plan on the post-Daesh era. A risk of a Sunni-Shiite conflict and a new wave of refugees are among the disquieting risks that not only Iraq but also Turkey may face. Once the Mosul is taken from Daesh, which seems to take not weeks but months, it is very crucial to leave the security of the city under the command of a Sunni Arab commander who will be welcomed by local people of the city in order to avoid any kind of sectarian or ethnic tensions. The worst scenario for the Sunni Arab majority population of Mosul would be to see Kurdish Peshmerga forces and Iranian-backed Shiite militias entering the city to take over the control when Daesh ends up its story there.
And this is when the Pandora’s box might open. In such a scenario, Turkey will be in a very difficult position where it may face a large number of refugees on its border. When people start to flee Mosul and knock Turkey’s door, what’s Ankara going to do then? Syrian crisis showed us as to what extent did the international community “help” Turkey in sharing the burden of Syrian refugees.
Turkey has pursued an open-door policy toward Syrian refugees and extended all-out humanitarian assistance to the refugees. A second flow would definitely further overburden Turkey. To avoid this situation, the best policy would be to establish a refugee camp across the Turkish borders. A multi-national effort, in which Turkey should be included on the ground and in post-Daesh talks in order to avoid evils coming out of the box.
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Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes mainly on issues regarding Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. She can be reached on Twitter @SinemCngz.