Ankara treads a fine line between regional challenges

Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım in late May had said, “Turkey has a lot of problems. We have regional problems. We are aware of it. So what will we do? Very simple: We’ll increase the number of our friends and we’ll decrease the number of our enemies.”
Last week showed us how this theory worked in practice.
Ankara has been quite busy with foreign policy issues throughout last week. Turkey hosted the 23rd World Energy Congress, a key global event that brought together significant names from several countries, in Istanbul, at a very crucial time.
Undoubtedly, the most important personality and the guest of honor at the event was Russian President Vladimir Putin, who came to Turkey upon the invitation of his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It was Putin’s first visit to Turkey since a bilateral crisis sparked by Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian warplane along the border with Syria last November.
Putin could have only sent a minister to represent his country at the event. But he didn’t. He attended, sat next to Erdogan in the front row at the event and the two leaders even shared some light moments with each other.
Putin’s presence at the event and his body language sent crucial messages to the western world at a time when both Moscow and Ankara are at odds with Washington over several issues. For Russia, the issue with Americans is Syria. For Turkey, it is Fethullah Gulen and Washington’s support to Kurds.
Turkey didn’t only break ice with Russia, but also with Israel. Tel Aviv sent its Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz to attend the energy congress. Steinitz’s visit was the first at a ministerial level in the past six years and is a great step toward the rapprochement agreed upon by Turkey and Israel.
The week ended up with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s visit to Riyadh to attend the Turkey-GCC foreign ministers’ meeting, where he once more met his Saudi counterpart.
The failed coup attempt on July 15 changed the balances for Turkey on regional and international fronts. Turkey returned to the world stage with the idea of decreasing its enemies and increasing its friends. We see the practice of this idea with the normalization of ties with Russia and Israel and strengthening of ties with Saudi Arabia. These are all very positive and important developments.
But on the other hand, the troubles in its immediate neighborhood continue to pose challenges for Turkey. Needless to say, this week’s issue was Iraq.
The possible operation to Mosul and Turkish military’s presence at the Bashiqa base near Mosul training Sunni and Peshmerga forces became a matter of tension between Turkey and Iraq. Erdogan warned Iraq’s Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi that he should “know his limits” after latter’s criticisms, vowing that Turkey will maintain its military in Iraq until Daesh is driven out of Mosul. As a country severely affected by Daesh, Turkey has fair reasons for its stance. Also, if the target is to get rid of Daesh, what is the aim to keep Turkey, a regional heavyweight, away from such an operation?
It is ridiculous to see the Iraqi government describing the Turkish presence in Iraq as “occupiers” while almost a third of Iraq’s territory is under Daesh control, not to mention the presence of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the country.
Iran, which enjoys good relations with the Shiite-led government in Baghdad, is silently watching the battle of words between two neighbors for now. While Washington passes the ball to two sides, saying the situation in Bashiqa is a matter for the governments of Iraq and Turkey to resolve.
It seems that the possible Mosul operation, rather than Raqqa in Syria, and Turkey’s participation in it will be the main topic to dominate Turkey’s foreign policy agenda in the following days. Mosul will be definitely a difficult challenge when compared to Jarablus, a Syrian border town that was retaken from Daesh thanks to Turkey-supported Euphrates Shield Operation in Syria.
Euphrates Shield Operation is about to complete its second month with a successful record, so far. The operation, which cleared some key positions along the Turkish border from Daesh, led the protracted Syrian crisis to enter a new era. It is still unclear how long the operation in Syria will last; however based on the developments in the region; it seems Turkish troops in Syrian territory will stay for a long time. Turkey’s aim to expand the area of operation toward south disturbs some actors (Kurds, Syrian regime, Daesh, Russians, Americans), as their interests will start to clash.
When Turkish-supported Free Syrian Army (FSA) moves to south, Daesh will be losing areas under its control and at the same time the dreams of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), Syrian branch of PKK, to connect their Afrin and Kobane cantons for future territorial claims will fall apart. Turkish move toward the south confronts with Russia’s strategic interests in Syria, as well.
For Russia, which supports Syrian regime at all costs, its naval base in Tartus and airbase in Latakia is of great importance for its long-term Middle East plans. Therefore, for the long-term success of Euphrates Shield Operation, Turkey needs to walk a fine line in Syria, also in Iraq, while also protecting its own strategic interests.
In this regard, the summit on Syria that will take place today in Lausanne between officials from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, US, Qatar and Iran is of great importance as all sides will have the chance to show their limits behind closed doors. Let’s wait and see what will be the outcome of the meeting.
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Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes mainly on issues regarding Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. She can be reached on Twitter @SinemCngz.