As the political atmosphere in Maldives gets murkier day by day, India appears to have been caught in a bind completely.
First, it was the forceful postponement of presidential run-off polls by the Maldivian police on Oct. 19 after two candidates refused to approve electoral lists, which threw the Indian Foreign Office into tizzy.
Next came the sensational revelation of an Al-Qaeda assassination plot by former President Mohamed Nasheed, alleging that his opponents have hired foreign mercenaries to eliminate him. Amid confusion, chaos and dramatic accusations, the Maldivian military has agreed to assist the Election Commission in transporting ballot boxes to some 200 islands ahead of the presidential re-vote scheduled on Nov. 9.
However, the Defense Ministry is loath to allowing the country’s military to play a more constructive role despite continued unrest fueled by political acrimony. And now the cycle is completed by the stoning of Indian envoy’s car by miscreants in Male.
It seems that the entire government structure in Maldives has turned into a mute bystander, as the nation resemble nothing less than a banana republic.
Analysts believe that if the situation does not improve dramatically on the ground, it will virtually be an open invitation for extremist forces to lay anchor in this strategically vital island nation situated in the midst of an important shipping route in the Indian Ocean. Deposed President Nasheed has repeatedly warned that Maldives is in the danger of being gripped by radicalism and unless a democratically elected government takes charge at the earliest, doomsday may not be far off.
He wanted New Delhi to intervene given India’s traditional linkage with this 1,200 islands archipelago located astride the sea-lane through which more than 80 percent of India’s seaborne trade is transited. But then, despite realizing the gravity of the developments, India somehow failed to move out of an escapist mode, preferring to play it safe instead. By doing so New Delhi, in fact, lost its ability to exercise leverage over Maldives. There is not an iota of doubt that India’s hold on this tiny yet sensitive neighbor is weakening gradually. What else other than Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh’s futile two-day visit to Male immediately prior to the rerun of the first round of presidential election can point to this reality?
Singh held extensive discussions to impress upon the Maldivian political leadership about the importance of holding timely elections. That the rendezvous has been of little success can be ascertained from the blocking of presidential poll by the police authorities a day later.
Perhaps the Foreign Ministry is silently ruing the blunder of according a hasty recognition to Mohamed Waheed’s government, which replaced deposed President Nasheed’s pro-India regime in February 2012.
Intriguingly, the diplomatic cables and the professional assessment of the external intelligence’s station chief sent from Male failed to prioritize the strategic objectives. As a result the Indian government procrastinated, assuming that the transfer of power was a harmless one from a strategic point of view. Above all, a series of hostile action initiated against Indian citizens, namely arbitrary imprisonment, deportation and visa cancelation, went unnoticed while the Indian ambassador vouched for President Waheed’s unquestionable pro-India moorings. One finds it peculiar that visible signs of anti-India sentiment prevailing within the Maldivian establishment were ignored on several occasions.
It is difficult to presume that a nation of India’s depth will be short of brain for evaluating the unfolding events in the neighborhood. In the words of Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh, what affects Maldives affects India too. Perhaps, New Delhi is consciously walking a diplomatic tightrope because the strategic establishment realizes that they are dealing with a powerful man in Mohamed Waheed – an ex-UN bureaucrat. He is backed by an influential domestic lobby led by former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, having effective control over the administrative system. They have succeeded in thwarting Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldivian Democratic Party who got 45 percent of popular support in the invalidated first round of presidential election held in September under the very nose of the judiciary. Therefore it is quite natural that New Delhi, widely perceived to be close to Nasheed, would not like to see itself isolated if democracy fails in Maldives or a hostile regime takes charge.
• Seema Sengupta is a Kolkata-based journalist
Email: [email protected]
and columnist.
