The budding rapprochement between the United States and Iran has left Israel in a bit of a fix. In the wake of the recent events on the global political stage, Tel Aviv is apparently judging pros and cons of acting alone to stop Tehran from going nuclear.
While Israel and the United States are still committed to the strategy of preventing Iran from developing nuclear capabilities, the difference in their approaches to deal with the matter cannot be more conspicuous.
It is widely believed that America restrained Israel from carrying out airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear plants in the past. On more than one occasion, Obama reportedly sent emissaries to convince Netanyahu not to launch a unilateral attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. Obama’s stance has remained unchanged: America will not allow Iran to go nuclear but would prefer to give sanctions time to bite. In his last visit to Israel, Obama assured the Israelis that his country would act to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb.
With sanctions leaving a deep wound on Iran’s teetering economy and with a change in the leadership, Tehran is opting for a change in its foreign policy. The media alluded to “heroic flexibility,” a phrase coined by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as a catchword for the intentions of Iran to give up on its nuclear ambitions in exchange for lifting sanctions. While it remains to be seen whether or not Iran is buying time, Obama views the change in Iran’s attitude as a vindication of the success of sanctions. Of course, it is far from certain that this would satisfy the increasingly worried Israeli leaders.
In his last speech at the United Nations, Netanyahu warned that his country would not hesitate to act alone if needed. And yet he endorsed the negotiations between Iran and the West, which are scheduled to start on Oct. 15 in Geneva.
Not surprisingly, Israel has no option but to wait for the negotiations. A unilateral airstrike while the Americans are negotiating with the Iranians seems unlikely. The situation, however, will be aggravated if Iran and the West reach an agreement that falls short of Israel’s demand i.e. total dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program.
Michael Herzog — an Israeli fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy — argues that Netanyahu is hostage to the new developments that allow for a new round of talks between Iran and P5 plus one.
Meanwhile, differences between Israel and its key ally — the United States — are to continue. Whereas Netanyahu seeks a total dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, Obama focuses more on what is achievable.
Never has it been harder for the Israelis to get an American administration see Iran as an imminent threat to regional security. Netanyahu’s insistence that Hassan Rowhani — the newly elected president — is nothing but “a wolf in sheep’s clothing,” is not expected to change much. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that America is getting weary of the Middle East and a war with Iran over the nuclear program will only be the last resort.
Key to Israel’s concern is the common impression among Israelis that Iran may be opting for a strategic deception. For this reason, the American administration made it perfectly clear that its rapprochement with Iran is measured and would not come at the expense of Israel’s security. On many occasions, Secretary of State John Kerry said that if diplomatic efforts failed then the US would take military action.
Apparently, Netanyahu is mistaking engagement with appeasement. To that Secretary of Defense Chalk Hagel said, “Aren’t we wiser if we can find ways to resolve disputes, recognizing the danger, being very clear-eyed and keeping the strongest military in the world?”
The American senior officials repeated one line: American will not be fooled by the Iranian’s new approach and that Washington would focus on deeds not words.
Thus far, the Americans and the Israelis are not on the same page. And yet the Israeli government is not in a position to play the role of spoiler. Simply put, Netanyahu cannot order an airstrike at a time the American administration is talking to Iran on the nuclear issue.
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