Many in Islamabad must have heaved a sigh of relief over Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s decision to finally call it quits. One thing is certain that by making this move, Kayani has assured an honorable exit for himself.
His succinct announcement also shot down rumors suggesting the 61-year-old commando wanted cling to the services in a new avatar. Rumormongers say Kayani wanted to assume the chairmanship of “Head of Defense Organization (HDO)” that would have made him in-charge of the three services chiefs.
The concept of HDO was reportedly coined by Kayani himself on the lines of a Western-style system for better coordination among various wings of the armed forces.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s silence over the issue must have disappointed Kayani. Sharif already has more than his fair share of problems, so his reluctance to add to his woes was quite natural.
The reason behind Kayani’s sudden announcement was, as officials put it, aimed at ending rumors once and for all. Political observers, however, do not agree with this official explanation and say the manner in which the announcement was made was very meaningful and Kayani’s expressions showed his discontent with the civilian setup, which he has been backing to the hilt for past six years.
Sharif did not wish to do away with the system of having a chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJSC), in vogue since 1976, which though a ceremonial post, remains a matter of pride for many. Of the 14 CJSCs, the country had so far; 11 times it went to the Army, twice to the Navy, and only once to the Air Force.
Quite obviously, Sharif might have been thinking of rotating it among the three armed services for a three-year term. Whether he would stick to his plans or opt for something else remains to be decided.
Normally, retirement of an incumbent in the top slot of the army, navy or air force, is synchronized with the announcement of his replacement. An announcement to this effect is made by the Defense Ministry some four to five weeks prior to the due date so as to allow time to the outgoing head(s) to visit garrisons, pay farewell calls on the president, the prime minister and other dignitaries.
Many say Kayani set a positive precedent by announcing his voluntary retirement on the completion of his constitutional term, but there many who smell rat.
On the face of it, the announcement was prompted by persistent rumors and statements attributed to the premier or his close aides that Kayani had been offered one more year in service. But the army chief, who had legitimately credited himself with being apolitical and standing behind the civilian administration on issues of democracy, or on negotiations with Taleban, was simultaneously conscious of the fact that he was blocking the promotion of many officers under him. He did not wish to aggravate the discontent, lest it affects the morale of a fighting force.
The prime minister, knowing well that he has enough time of at his disposal, preferred to consult his top aides on the issue of Kayani’s succession. His earlier commitment of selecting the senior-most general as the next chief of the ground forces, may witness a reversal for he will now be presented a list of three top four-star officers to choose from.
Sharif has Gen. Haroon Aslam, who apart from being the operational and intelligence chief, also has the credit of taking Swat valley from Taleban’s control in 2009 but his retirement is due next April. Gen. Rashid Mahmood and Gen. Raheel Ashraf are also in line. Seniority or loyalty to the government of the day and commitment to democratic dispensation may also form the criteria.
But the most difficult problem will have to be army’s continued support for negotiations with Taleban. Kayani remained supportive but whether his successors too will behave like him is difficult to predict. Historically fundamentalists have been arrogant, and preferred swords or guns over dialogue. Whether Sharif would feel exhausted by their negative attitude and forced to settle the issue with bullets is a difficult question to answer.
Yet another point to ponder will be mounting public dissatisfaction over soaring prices of essential commodities and the continuous devaluation of the rupee.
Sharif must take appropriate measures to settle these issues so as to consolidate his position. So far, his government’s performance to check the situation has remained dismal. This is a big reason to worry.
In his parting remarks, Kayani laid emphasis on the strengthening of institutions but his advice will only work if the government earnestly takes measures to provide some relief to the masses.
As we all know that Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry is also set to retire in December. So an entirely new set up will soon be installed in the country and this changed scenario will naturally put extraordinary burden on Sharif. It is a path he needs to tread very carefully as the next six to eight months are going to be crucial for the country.
