A very powerful lobby in Pakistan believes that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s upcoming visit to Washington will be a “journey into the unknown” as the outcome is very unpredictable. On the other hand, there are others who point out that Pakistan is not only an old ally of the United States but has also suffered immensely due to the US war in Afghanistan and hence there is no question of a total collapse of talks .
From overtures emanating from Washington, it is obvious that Americans want to reassure their guest that while misgivings exist, there is no cause for concern.
Pakistan and US have had ups and downs in their relationship since 1950s, but if analyzed realistically, changes have taken place in perceptions and philosophies over the years. Strategies and ground realities have drastically altered the course of events and set a new path for the world.
Conscious of these facts, both Nawaz and President Obama will be meeting on Oct. 23 to talk on issues affecting their bilateral ties and roles in the regions. The idea will be to redefine their respective perceptions and find areas for cooperation based on the changed realities on the ground.
Issues like Iranian gas pipeline; China’s decision to supply two new atomic reactors; Pakistan’s role in post-2014 Afghanistan; ties with India; peace talks with Taleban are likely to figure in their talks. Also likely to be discussed are drone attacks that have been a bone of contention between the two countries as well as situation on the Indo-Pak border where firing incidents have occurred recently.
Talks, therefore, are likely to be on specifics and spread over several hours, but while disagreement is possible only on some issues a complete breakdown is ruled out. Given the fact that the two countries have been key allies in the war on terror and had age-old relationship, the meeting is unlikely to founder.
The eagerness of the Americans to keep Islamabad on their side and not to alienate it completely was visible from a number of important concessions announced during meetings with Pakistan’s Finance Minister Ishaq Dar in Washington recently. These included the immediate release of $322 million for Pakistan from the Coalition Support Fund (CSF); an impressive chunk of $1.5 billion for development projects from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation — a private body of US entrepreneurs but acting under Washington’s advice; a World Bank financing of $700 million for a rural northern area hydropower project in a place called Dasu; and an additional $1 billion from International Development Association.
All these announcement on the eve of the Nawaz’s visit show the US wants to remove misgivings and reassure Nawaz that Washington remains interested in Pakistan’s progress.
Recently, a high-level meeting led by Nawaz Sharif decided to hold talks with the Taleban. Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, ISI chief Gen. Zaheerul Islam, PM’s Foreign Affairs and National Security Adviser Sartaj Aziz, who participated in the meeting, endorsed negotiations with the Taleban. The participants were encouraged by the recent statement from Taleban leader Hakimullah Mehsud, who reportedly said that both sides should set aside preconditions and initiate dialogue. Americans are not against talks with Taleban, but Maulana Fazlur Rehman, a leader of a political party, who is more familiar with the Taleban leadership said after his two-day secret visit to Afghanistan that he won the support of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Fazlur Rehman was in Kabul at a time when US Secretary of State John Kerry was also in Afghanistan.
Americans and Karzai despite three days of negotiations have not been able to iron out their differences, but Fazlur Rehman claimed that he had secured the release of Pakistani prisoners in Afghanistan and that Karzai had agreed to Pakistan’s greater role for peace in Afghanistan.
The success of talks on such issues during the Pak-US dialogue is to be seen, but Nawaz’s visit cannot be considered a “journey into the unknown.” China’s rising role in Pakistan is also a cause for concern for the US and India and that is also likely to figure during this visit.
