Annan's mission impossible
The butchery in Houla, where 108 Syrian were massacred on Friday, seems to have aroused the conscience of the international community. The massacre came as a tipping point in 15-month-old revolution and accordingly Assad should halt his killing machine, pack up and leave once and for all. A few on this planet would believe in Assad’s silly arguments and naked lies.
Even Kofi Annan — who has been entrusted by the United Nations and the Arab League with the task of supervising and implementing a six-point plan to defuse the crisis in Syria and who has tried his best to establish a working relationship with Assad — could not keep his composure with the news of the massacre rocking the whole world. In his talks with Assad in Damascus, Annan "conveyed in frank terms the grave concern of the international community about the violence in Syria, including the recent shocking events in Houla." Assad has reached the point of no return and no international efforts can sway him from further killing. "We are at a tipping point. The Syrian people do not want the future to be one of bloodshed and division. Yet the killings continue and the abuses are still with us today," Annan said.
What Annan and like-minded diplomats failed to understand is a very simple matter. Assad will not budge unless he is checked. Therefore, by giving the impression that he is cooperating to find a solution, he just buys time to finish off the rebels. After killing more than 12,000 Syrians, Assad views the crisis as a zero-sum dispute. While the horrific execution of scores of children shocked the world, the massacre has done little to change American policy toward the ruthless regime in Syria. The most powerful country on earth is suffering from a lack of leadership that paralyzed the international community.
Assad is still in self-denial. After the latest massacre in Houla, Assad told Annan that “terrorists” had stepped up their activities. Assad continues his deception and he argued that it was up to the countries that fuel violence in Syria to stop funding and arming the “terrorists.” It is about time that the international community take action and throw away Annan’s imprudent plan. It should not be looked as if the process is open-ended. The imposed sanctions on the Syrian regime and the expulsion of the Syrian diplomats from key Western countries are not enough to prevent Assad from killing his own people.
The failure of Annan in Syria is obvious. In fact, his failure will be damaging to his legacy of successful mediation in other conflict-hit regions. Perhaps, Annan himself should view his plan as being not only ineffective but also enabling Assad to continue with his schemes to wipe out the revolution of the map.
The bottom line is that short of external intervention, the conflict in Syria will continue. Washington has so far rejected arming rebels, saying it does not want to further militarize the situation when Washington is not sure about the rebels. President Obama has missed an opportunity early on the crisis. He should have stepped up the pressure on Assad. Now the problem is that he is in the midst of a heated electoral campaign and cannot afford to make a single mistake. Undoubtedly, the Americans do not have the stomach for another military adventure.
Notwithstanding the tough rhetoric on the part of the American administration, the military intervention is not yet on the table. Perhaps, the United States has its own reasons, but the administration has unwittingly sending one message to Assad: We shout loud but we do not undermine your campaign against your people.
That said, who would stop that killing? Who would say enough is enough and do something about the conflict? Many in America are doubtful about the ability of their country to show leadership. They argue that the only one who can convince or even force Assad to leave is ironically Putin of Russia. Given the support that Moscow has been giving to Assad, Putin can convince Assad to step down, appoint a successor who can negotiate the transition. Until some miraculous external intervention happens, Assad will continue his policies and Annan’s mission will be impossible.