Syria’s endgame

I write this week from New York, where the buzz is that the Syrian conflict is approaching the endgame. With that, key players are trying to position themselves to gain the most, or at least minimize losses, from the imminent collapse of the regime. On the other hand, the Syrian regime itself is unleashing unprecedented terror in an attempt to force an end to the revolt.
The United States and European allies appear to be trying to cobble together a solution before the collapse, to avert dismemberment of the country and disintegration of its key institutions.
Next week, John Kerry the new US secretary of state, will visit the Middle East, with the crisis in Syria on top of his agenda. As his first challenge, the outcome of the Syrian crisis will shape the rest of his term at the State Department.
US pundits are pointing out differences in style, if not substance, between Kerry and Hillary Clinton, his predecessor. Her initial trip and much of her legacy was related to managing America’s relationships in Asia. With Kerry, they expect greater emphasis on the Middle East, consistent with traditional US priorities. Since taking office, Kerry's first calls were to leaders in the region and his first overseas trip will take him through the Middle East and the Gulf, after meeting with some allies in Europe, to discuss Middle East crises. However, it is notable that Kerry is bypassing Israel and Palestine, indicating that they are not his priorities on this trip.
On Syria, Kerry is reported to be contemplating a negotiated solution to end the 2-year-old bloody war that has killed over 70,000 civilians. The plan would include the exit of Bashar Assad, followed by the formation of an independent national unity government and national dialogue. That new plan would likely to be discussed by Kerry with leaders of the Syrian opposition. He is expected to meet in Rome with Moath Al-Khatib, the Syrian National Coalition leader, to discuss the plan.
In addition, Kerry is expected to meet this week with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. Russia has been key in propping up the regime militarily. Just as important, it has blocked all efforts at the United Nations Security Council toward international action to stop the Syrian bloodshed and has single-handedly led efforts to shield the regime from global censure at United Nations institutions.
The Syrian regime, on the other hand, seems to be living in a parallel universe, in which it is still in control. Over the past few weeks, it has unleashed what has remained of its air force, tanks, heavy guns and missiles against civilians. It is trying to force an endgame of its own, by crushing the opposition and proving its fantasy to be true.
Watching Syria's "People's Assembly," you cannot help the feeling that you are watching an Orwellian farce. Deputies express their loud unconditional loyalty to Big Brother, while the regime's quixotic minister of information called on the opposition to come back to Syria to enter into yet another dialogue, where he would personally guarantee their safety.
The regime's allies, Iran and Hezbollah, have plans of their own. In Iran, Hojjat al-Islam Mehdi Taeb, the head of the Ammar Strategic Base (a propaganda organization) declared last week that, “Syria is the 35th province (of Iran) and a strategic province for us. If the enemy attacks us and wants to appropriate either Syria or Khuzestan (in southern Iran), the priority is that we keep Syria.”
Highlighting the priority Iran is attaching to the Syrian war, Taeb added: “If we keep Syria, we can get Khuzestan back too, but if we lose Syria, we cannot keep Tehran."
Taeb agreed that the Syrian Army has failed in ending the revolt and asserted that it could not possibly win a war inside Syria’s cities. Therefore, he maintained, it was up to Iran to come up with the solution. He said that Iran had already advised the Syrian government that "in order to manage an urban war you must form a Basij," referring to the Iranian-style irregular militias that were used in the war with Iraq. He added: "The Syrian Basij has been formed with 60,000 (members) of Hezbollah, who will take over the war in the streets from the army.”
The Lebanese Hezbollah appears to be already implementing Iran's plan. Its fighters have been fighting street battles with the Syrian Free Army. In Lebanon, it has been doing a rear action by attacking and intimidating Syrian refugees. It is threatening to mobilize tens of thousands of new irregular fighters from Lebanese villages to join the fray.
Russia seems to be placing bets all over the place. The hurried evacuation of its nationals from Syria has rattled the regime, but speeding up delivery of heavy weapons has helped the regime unleash its latest deadly onslaught on its people. On the other hand, Russian officials are publicly expressing doubts that the Syrian regime could prevail and as a result counseling a negotiated solution. They are also keen to engage with the United States to reach such a solution.
This coming week promises to be pivotal for the Syrian crisis. If efforts toward a peaceful conclusion to this bloody conflict fail, the Iranian plan may try to force a bloodier course, in a vain attempt to crush the popular revolution. The Syrian regime will be more than happy to lend a hand to put that plan into effect.

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