The two Sudans moving from ideology to interest
As far as Sudan is concerned, fingers crossed; we may be lucky this time. There are grounds for optimism as the latest round of talks between Sudan and South Sudan ended last week with the signing of a matrix to enforce eight deals on cooperation between the two countries agreed upon last September. This means that these deals may have finally found their way for implementation.
There was a host of issues on the table, from the question of borders to the disputed region of Abyei and from oil to other points of contention that should have been settled before the separation of South Sudan back in July 2011. South Sudan has apparently opted to drag its feet on the matter. For one thing, it was very much focused on the big task of having the separation carried out smoothly and receiving recognition from the mother country itself, Sudan. Moreover, it makes a difference to be able to negotiate as an independent country.
However, not long after South Sudan became independent, a row erupted between the two on oil transporting fees, as it is a landlocked country and needs to use both downstream facilities and ports in Sudan to get its oil to world markets.
As the dispute continued for six months and no agreement on transit fees was reached, Sudan decided to take what it saw as its dues, in turn confiscating some of the oil cargoes so as to cover its outstanding transit bills.
Juba reacted furiously, calling Sudan’s unilateral action a “robbery” and went even further to shut down its oil production so as to deny Khartoum any access to its oil. Tensions rose and prospects of a war between the two countries became a possibility. However, the involvement of the African Union as the main mediator, backed by the UN Security Council, with the threat of sanctions, provided some of the restraint for the two capitals not to drift into war.
However, 14 months after that shutdown, South Sudan began feeling the pinch of that decision as oil revenues constituted almost all its income, but it somehow managed to survive insofar as it managed to paint the oil production shutdown as a form of economic independence following political independence from the mother country. In addition, as a nation of youth that had been through tough years of civil war, it thought it could tolerate the hardship. Whatever savings it had or help from friendly countries proved insufficient in the end to sustain the plight of a lack of oil revenues. Moreover, nothing substantial had been done to look for an export alternative through Kenya in East Africa despite a number of MoUs signed between South Sudan and Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. Such an alternative is in need of a detailed feasibility study to determine whether the country has enough reserves to justify building a new pipeline, in addition to other logistical and security issues.
Though the presidents of the two countries, Omar Bashir and Salva Kiir, signed the deal, six months have passed without them being implemented. The sticking point was and still is the security arrangements where Sudan wants to ensure that the rebels who are challenging its authority are not getting support from the South Sudan and that is why they have decided on a buffer and a demilitarized zone so as to satisfy the security concerns of both parties before allowing South Sudan oil to flow through its land.
Another factor is that Kiir has managed to consolidate his grip on power following his firing of more than 100 generals from the army as well as some governors.
If the agreements on cooperation between the two countries are carried out, they will take their relationship to a whole new level of mutual interest and defuse the tendency to go for regime change as hard-liners in both capitals were preaching. That stems from the fact that the two ruling parties in both countries, the Sudan’s National Congress Party with its Islamic program and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in South Sudan with its clear secularist commitment, stand disunited politically and ideologically. It was ironic that the 2005 peace that ended Sudan’s civil war, the longest in Africa, was concluded between these two. Indeed, the challenge before them now is to move from ideology to mutual interest.
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