Aoun cannot vouch for Hezbollah in any deal Lebanon makes

A few weeks ago, a clip of US President Donald Trump stating that he wants to “make Lebanon great again” went viral in the country and beyond. There is no doubt that many Lebanese feel that, for once, there is a US president in office who sees and understands them. Mostly, the declarations and actions of the current American administration are without the usual sophistry of Western politicians that Hezbollah is a part of the political landscape.

I believe that this administration’s support for Lebanon is genuine, yet there are conditions to this support. While pushing for direct negotiations with Israel is a good step forward, Lebanon’s leadership needs to understand that it will not get any American support in such negotiations without completing the plan to disarm Hezbollah. This means that Washington will not put its weight into influencing Israel to accept an agreement that supports some Lebanese arguments unless Hezbollah is dismantled. This is not only a US request but a deeper Lebanese demand.

What does this mean? As we all now know, there will be no outside troops to help disarm Hezbollah. This is out of the question. Yet, even deeper, the Lebanese Armed Forces might lose US support if it does not execute the government’s plan.

US lawmakers are growing impatient with the endless promises of the army to disarm Hezbollah. Members of Congress such as Sens. Roger Wicker, Jim Risch and Lindsey Graham are now openly calling for US military aid to Lebanon to be halted, or at least conditioned on immediate action being taken. Moreover, there is now open criticism of the Lebanese army and its commander, Rodolphe Haykal.

Lebanon will not get US support in negotiations with Israel without completing the plan to disarm Hezbollah

Khaled Abou Zahr

Many are going as far as stating that Hezbollah is embedded within the army and this makes it a bad use of American taxpayers’ money. The US has provided more than $2.5 billion in military/security assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces since 2006, with additional yearly packages of tens to hundreds of millions of dollars continuing through 2025.

This support has been provided on the premise that, by supporting the Lebanese army, the US would be able to counter Hezbollah’s influence and might. We can all agree this has not happened and, while the support might have helped the country keep order, it has not moved the balance of power. What has really made a difference and has helped the Lebanese leadership to finally openly criticize Hezbollah and take the decision to disarm it are the Israeli strikes and the destruction. Yet, the army will not directly confront Hezbollah to execute the disarmament plan. So, what comes next?

The regime in Iran will not give the order to Hezbollah to drop its weapons unless it gets what it wants regionally. There is little to no chance of this happening. In the meantime, Iran and the US are negotiating and maintaining a ceasefire, but this has not held on the Lebanese front. Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah’s drone hits continue without any signs of slowing down. Lebanon’s political leaders are left condemning both the rock and the hard place without being able to do anything else.

The regime in Iran will not give the order to Hezbollah to drop its weapons unless it gets what it wants regionally

Khaled Abou Zahr

In essence, the real political fight is taking place from within. Who will be able to sustain more pain? Which will endure longer: the government of Lebanon staying its course or Hezbollah weathering the strikes? On a purely tactical point, there is no doubt that a weakened Hezbollah is at an advantage over the government. Yet, at this stage, short of a disarmament, it will make no difference. I am not sure how the Lebanese government stands regarding the European efforts for a ceasefire, which would resemble those from 2006 onwards, allowing Hezbollah to replenish its stockpiles of arms and repeatedly drag the country into wars it has nothing to do with.

And here is the key point: How can you negotiate peace if you do not hold authority for deciding war and peace in your country? Indeed, how can President Joseph Aoun be sure he is able to execute even a ceasefire with Israel? This means that, essentially, he will need to agree with Israel and then achieve an agreement with Hezbollah — and hence sign up to what Hezbollah agrees.

This is Palestine Liberation Organization, Hamas dynamics all over again and we know how it ends. This cannot work. Simply because Hezbollah is not the final decision-maker when it comes to war either. That decision is taken by the regime in Tehran. So, how can Aoun guarantee the application of any truce? In short, he cannot. Once again, as long as Hezbollah has its arsenal, Lebanon is not the master of any agreement that it signs.

This is very clear, even without anything having been reached until now. Hezbollah has declared it is against the direct negotiation process, so the result will not be recognized or accepted. Any deal will only bind the Lebanese state, which will pay the price for any breaches by Hezbollah. To put it simply, Aoun cannot vouch for Hezbollah in an international agreement.

If I could offer advice to Aoun, as news circulates of a potential meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, it would be to attend only if he is able to disarm Hezbollah. If not, he will lose out for Lebanon and for himself on too many fronts. There is no point in shaking hands if you cannot deliver. Hezbollah must be stripped of its arsenal. Finding out how is Aoun’s first and most important mission.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.