Syrian war seen dragging on for years
Syrian President Bashar Assad cannot regain full control of his battered country and his opposition fighters are not strong enough to overthrow him, dooming Syria to months or even years of sectarian civil war.
Bolstered by his Iranian and Russian backers, Assad has chalked up some military successes in recent weeks, defying his many critics, who have been confidently predicting his imminent downfall since the start of the uprising in March 2011. But any suggestion his government might secure the total defeat of its disparate opponents shows little understanding of the nature of the war or the multitude of forces involved.
“As things stand, the regime cannot re-conquer, it cannot reconcile, it cannot reform and it cannot rebuild,” said Peter Harling, a project director at the International Crisis Group.
“But winning is living another day, and if you bring it down to that, (Assad) is,” he said.
As recently as December, Germany’s foreign intelligence agency stated openly that Assad’s government appeared to be “in its final stages,” citing its loss of control over swathes of territory and signs the fighters were coordinating better.
Fast forward just five months, and the agency has turned that assessment on its head, a security source in Berlin said.
Germany now believes it is the opposition that faces serious difficulties, hobbled by internal strife and forced into retreat by the arrival of well-trained Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas, who have gone to war to fight for Assad’s survival.
However, a senior official in neighboring Israel, reputed to have some of the best intelligence on its old enemy Syria, dismissed the idea that Assad was staging a remarkable recovery and could once again take full charge of his scarred nation.
“It’s a roller coaster, up and down, but over time you see Assad shrinking,” said the top official, adding that recent government gains might prove hard to maintain. “It could all change tomorrow,” he said. Recent history shows that most civil wars do not finish quickly, they do not tend to end in negotiated settlements and the longer they continue, the more difficult it is to disarm the militia and unravel the inevitable refugee crises.
Despite much hand-wringing in the West, the bloodletting looks set to carry on for much longer. According to Barbara Walter, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, civil wars since 1945 have lasted an average 10 years. Some analysts are starting to draw parallels with the civil war in Lebanon, which dragged on from 1975-1990 “Yes, the Syrian war will last for many years ... And no, Assad will not emerge victorious,” said Walter, who has written extensively about civil wars around the world. On paper, Assad’s position looks encouraging for his allies.
Despite the improvement in the outlook for Assad, the dynamics of civil war make it hard to imagine he can triumph.
“I do not recall one civil war that has lasted for more than two years and that has ended with a complete restoration of control by the central government,” said Jonathan Eyal, head of international studies at the Royal United Services Institute.
New patterns of power are emerging as Syria is torn apart, state institutions fray and the economy is devastated. The huge influx of arms means it may take decades to restore order. The war’s regional, ethnic and sectarian nature is a further element that looks likely to fuel the fighting.
“Even if the opposition was crushed, it would not be in the interests of most Arab states to abandon them because they would want to have an instrument to keep putting pressure on Assad and Iran,” said Eyal.
