Down, but not out

BOLSTERED by an unprecedented popular support, the military stepped in to depose Egypt’s first democratically elected leader. The military move surprised only a few. Explicit in all statements made by senior leaders of the army was that the military would not sit idly by as chaos gripped the country.
Far from being complacent, supporters of Mursi poured onto the street to resist the military’s move. To add salt to injury, many of Mursi’s supporters were detained. Needless to say, Mursi is held incommunicado in an unknown place and Islamist broadcast outlets were closed down. Not surprisingly, his supporters came to the realization that they were the most to lose in this political convulsion. For this reason, they tend to resist the military coup to the end. The Muslim Brotherhood’s defiance could pose a severe blow to the interim government’s claim of inclusiveness.
This begs the question as whether the new leadership will succeed in the interim period to assure the Egyptians after two years and a half of misfires. Let us not forget that the dust has not yet settled and Egypt may well descend into a wave of violence and anarchy.
The new leader has to pay attention to the economy. At the end, Egyptians seek not only freedom but also bread. The bad news for the new leadership is that the economy is in tatters. Unemployment rates reached unprecedented levels and poverty hits the mark of 50 percent of the population. Despite Mursi’s poor performance, it is not possible to blame him for all the problems in the economy. The economic challenge is real. In fact, millions of Egyptians turned against Mursi and his movement because of his handling of the economy was really bad. And yet, there is no quick fix for this chronic challenge.
The second challenge is drafting a new constitution after it was clear to all that the constitution that was ratified under Mursi further polarized the Egyptian society. Millions of those who took to the streets to bring down Mursi believe that the battle over the constitution is between a civil state and religious one. Seen in this way, drafting a new constitution may prove to be a real problem without the participation of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist movement. Can the new leadership get the Islamists on board on this issue in particular? Hardly! Obviously, the sympathizers of Mursi feel passionately over the way their man was deposed. Therefore, how they can cooperate with the new leadership when they are certain that their democratic rights have been squashed.
It all boils down to one basic point: Without a healthy process of reconciliation, stability in Egypt will be difficult task for any government. And Egypt will be way better off if its new leaders reach out to the Islamists with the purpose of incorporating them into the political process. Islamists must be convinced to participate in future elections and they should be assured that they still could win elections. If the new leaders opted for the politics of exclusion, then Islamists’ faith in democracy could be irreversibly shattered.
And yet, Islamists need to learn the lesson. They failed to respect pluralism and opted for imposing their conception of how a society should look like. For many observers, electing those who do not believe in pluralism, diversity and modernity leads to empowerment of elements that can subvert the democracy itself. Additionally, they will make themselves a huge favor if they realize that they were incapable of running a modern government. Therefore, the argument that they were freely elected and that there was a world conspiracy against the Islamist can take them nowhere. They need to review their brief experience in the government to draw lessons for the future.
For all practical reasons, democracy is not a matter of elections. In fact, it entails a political culture that is based on tolerance, respect for minority rights, the rein of the rule of law and the respect of the outcome of elections. Short of making sure that all of these elements are in place, democracy is not expected to take off in Egypt. This is not the responsibility of the new leaders alone but also the Islamists.

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