Gaza’s day after: Three irrelevant issues in this moment of grave urgency
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Despite more than 135 days of brutal Israeli attacks and amid the urgent need to stop the ongoing human suffering in Gaza, media and diplomatic circles are turning to other subjects. The discourse of American and European politicians and media appears to be dominated by three interrelated topics: What will the day after hold? The need to reform the Palestinian Authority. And calls for a two-state solution.
While much will depend on the outcome of heated armed confrontations that are far from over, some answers to these questions are already fairly clear.
Imagining scenarios for “the day after” — which will not come anytime soon — is really a waste of time. History tells us who will control Gaza once the main hostilities have calmed. Israel will gradually and grudgingly be dragged into bearing all kinds of responsibilities in the Gaza Strip. One reason is that Israel will justify maintaining a military presence and an attached bureaucracy there in order to sustain any military “achievements” it makes, whether they are an ethnically cleansed northern Gaza, a quieted resistance or whatever it claims to have ultimately achieved. As a result, Israel will find itself gradually reoccupying the Gaza Strip.
As long as Israel maintains a military presence in Gaza, nobody else will be willing to have an auxiliary role there — especially one of civilian responsibility. Neither Israel nor Hamas, the two main players in Gaza, want the PA to be in charge and it would be foolish for that organization to try and build up a Gaza presence alongside Israeli tanks (its West Bank experiment with this is not going so well). Other Arab countries have already made it clear that they have absolutely no interest in such a role.
As long as Israel’s ‘friends’ and lobbies in Western and other capitals have its back, Israel will force its way on the ground
Ghassan Khatib
Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been very clear about this. Indeed, he keeps repeating his position: Israel will keep for itself security responsibilities to the west of the Jordan River, including the Gaza Strip. Palestinians believe that this far-right vision will prevail, despite internal Israeli opposition, because it always has. As long as Israel’s “friends” and lobbies in Western and other capitals have its back, Israel will force its way on the ground.
In terms of reforming the PA, US President Joe Biden was the first to suggest that the organization should have a role in Gaza once Israel’s invasion is pronounced to be over. But he linked that role to reform, which triggered a wide range of discussions. From the perspective of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, these discussions are not based in reality. Palestinians and the PA do not have the luxury of reforming their governing authority when Israel is in the final stages of suffocating it, financially and politically.
Israeli economic sanctions, the most obvious of which is withholding most of the taxes it collects on behalf of the PA, are crippling Palestinian institutions. The PA, which runs police, schools and many other functions in the West Bank and still has employees in Gaza, has not been able to pay full salaries to its employees for the last year and a half.
Politically, the PA’s public standing has been harmed by a dramatic increase in the confiscation of Palestinian land and expansion of illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank, combined with Israel closing the door on any political horizons — i.e., its rejection of the two-state solution. To the public, the PA seems almost impotent.
That does not mean the PA is not in need of reform. In fact, it needs much more — it needs oxygen to survive in order to allow reform. The way to reform the PA starts with empowering it; allowing it to regain the political, financial and geographic space invested in it through the Oslo Accords that created it. That would allow for proper and free elections, which are the backbone of real reforms. In other words, reforming the PA only makes sense if it happens as part of a comprehensive strengthening package.
There is no credibility in demanding a two-state solution while still tolerating Israel’s continued expansion of illegal settlements
Ghassan Khatib
That brings us to the two-state solution. It is ironic that American and European politicians have suddenly “discovered” that the cure for the current crisis is the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. Never mind that Palestinians have said this over and over — indeed, it is the cure. But without tackling the barriers that have prevented the creation of a Palestinian state since the start of the peace process 30 years ago, this solution remains only rhetorical.
There is no credibility in demanding a two-state solution while still tolerating Israel’s continued expansion of illegal settlements. A serious international position on illegal settlement expansion would require sanctions on Israel. Indeed, there is only one peaceful path to realizing the two-state solution. One must help establish a new state, the state of Palestine, in the same way the first state, the state of Israel, was established — with recognition and support.
Paying lip service to the two-state solution will not have any practical effect; instead, countries should contribute to its realization by recognizing the state of Palestine on its 1967 borders and helping to materialize its security and independence in a practical way.
Moreover, the way that the US and EU spoil and pamper Israel, turning a blind eye to its behavior, has contributed to a radicalization process and resulted in Israel’s further distancing from the two-state solution. The fact that the US and EU have not linked their continued support for Israel with its respect for the two-state solution has convinced the Israeli public that there is no price to be paid for its decision to deepen its military occupation.
The Israeli public sees no cost for the country’s policies and positions, even if they contradict the vision of Israel’s “big brothers” — the EU and US patrons that supply it with weapons and prevent its political isolation. Reviving the two-state solution requires real pressure on the Israeli public to try to reverse its radicalization.
Sanctioning a handful of Israeli settlers, as the US and some EU countries have done, sends a message that they object to a few bad apples and individual violence — not official Israeli policy. What is required by this urgent crisis is a break with US and EU policies that turn a blind eye to Israel’s state violence. Until that happens, Palestinians may continue to look for other ways to attain their freedom.
- Ghassan Khatib is a lecturer in international studies at Birzeit University, and held several positions in the Palestinian Authority. He also founded and directed the Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre, where this article first appeared.
