Why the Arab-American vote is not just about the Middle East conflict

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Updated 02 November 2024
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Why the Arab-American vote is not just about the Middle East conflict

Why the Arab-American vote is not just about the Middle East conflict
  • New survey conducted by Arab News and YouGov captures the nuances and complexities of the important demographic’s priorities
  • Al-Arabiya’s Joseph Haboush and Arab News’s Tarek Ali Ahmad analyzed the findings on the Ray Hanania Radio Show

CHICAGO/LONDON: The Arab American voter base, often viewed primarily through the lens of Middle East concerns like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, presents a far more nuanced picture in the upcoming US elections, experts have told Arab News.

Discussing the preview of a new survey conducted by Arab News and YouGov, Joseph Haboush, Washington correspondent for Al Arabiya English, and Tarek Ali Ahmad, head of Arab News’ Research & Studies Unit, said that while the Palestinian issue remains significant, Arab Americans are equally focused on domestic issues like the economy, border security and hate speech.

“The issue of Palestine is not as prevalent among the Arab American voters as one might think,” Haboush said.




The poll results suggest that Arab American voters are focused on both domestic issues and the Middle East conflict, but believe that Trump, rather than Harris, is more likely to end the ongoing wars. (Getty Images/File)

A Lebanese American, Haboush said that many Arab Americans, particularly those of Lebanese origin, have conflicting views on Palestine due to Lebanon’s own complex history with the Palestinian community during its civil war.

Some blame the Palestinians for their role in the conflict, while others view the matter differently, Haboush said during the taping of “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” on Thursday.

“It’s interesting that it might not be as high of a priority among the Arab American voters as an outsider might think.”




The poll results suggest that Arab American voters are focused on both domestic issues and the Middle East conflict, but believe that Trump, rather than Harris, is more likely to end the ongoing wars. (Getty Images/File)

Lebanon’s demographic shift, fueled by the influx of Palestinians in 1948 and 1967, contributed to tensions that culminated in the Lebanese Civil War from 1975 to 1990.

The conflict, pitting Palestinian and Lebanese Muslim forces against Christian militias, drew in regional powers like Syria, Israel and Iran, leading to devastating consequences.

The war left Lebanon in a fragile sectarian balance that persists today.




A cloud of smoke erupts following an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs on October 19, 2024. (AFP)

Many Lebanese fled the violence, seeking refuge in the US and Europe, where they established communities that, while preserving Lebanese heritage, have become increasingly integrated into local society and politics.

With the 2024 election shaping up to be a head-to-head race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, Arab American voters are weighing multiple priorities. The survey shows that these voters, who have often been portrayed as a monolithic bloc driven by foreign policy, are just as concerned about bread-and-butter issues facing their daily lives.

This signals a shift in priorities, where domestic economic challenges are competing with longstanding foreign policy issues for Arab Americans’ attention.

“The poll that was conducted by YouGov and Arab News essentially revealed that Arab Americans are nearly evenly split in their support for two major presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris,” Arab News’s Ali Ahmad said.




Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump campaign in the US state of Michigan, a key battleground state for the two  candidates, on October 19, 2024. (Getty Images/AFP) 

He added that while only 4 percent favored third-party candidate Jill Stein — known for criticizing US support for Israel — a small segment of undecided voters could play a crucial role, particularly in battleground states such as Michigan, where the Arab American community could sway the election outcome.

The Biden administration has faced heavy criticism for its unwavering support of Israel’s military actions against Hamas and Hezbollah, pushing the region to the brink of a wider conflict involving Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.”

The alliance, comprising Tehran-backed militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, has fueled a tit-for-tat escalation of violence, with diplomats worldwide scrambling to prevent further chaos.

Haboush argued that Washington, despite co-leading negotiations for ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, has failed to effectively leverage its diplomatic power, “putting a bit of a dent on the US image abroad”

Despite that, 52 percent of Arab Americans surveyed want the US to either maintain or increase its military presence in the region, Haboush highlighted.

“They want the US to kind of work its diplomatic channels, (and) at the same time they don’t want the US to leave, according to this poll, at least from a military point of view. Because, I think, the belief is that once the military presence is gone, just the overall interest is gone,” Haboush said, adding that the survey results reflect a belief in the value of US involvement, despite recent diplomatic shortcomings.

This sentiment emerged as Israel on Thursday confirmed the death of Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas and mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks where 1,200 people were killed, mostly civilians, and 250 abducted, killed during a patrol in Rafah in southern Gaza.

Sinwar’s death, widely seen as pivotal, could mark a new phase in the conflict that has claimed more than 42,000 lives in Gaza and more than 2,400 in Lebanon, following clashes between Israel and Hezbollah.




In this Oct. 21, 2011 photo, Yahya Sinwar, a founder of Hamas' military wing, talks during a rally in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip. (AP Photo/File)

While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to press on, some officials view Sinwar’s death as a potential opening for peace, providing a chance for the more than year-long conflict in Gaza to finally end, and for Israeli hostages to be brought home.

With less than 20 days until the election, analysts expect that US President Joe Biden may seize this window to push for a ceasefire, a move that could influence the election and boost the campaign of Kamala Harris, who is viewed by respondents of the survey as less likely to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict compared to Republican nominee Donald Trump.

“There’s a notable division in who Arab Americans believe is better to handle the situation (in Gaza and Lebanon). Many of them feel that both candidates are simply incapable regarding Middle East issues,” Ali Ahmad said, adding that “a significant enough amount (of voters) to alter this election” have veered toward Stein in protest of US foreign policy.




Poll by the US civil rights group ADC in July showing independent presidential aspirant Jill Stein being a better option by American Muslims to the Republican and Democratic nominees. (ADC image

“The results showed that a majority of those polled, 40 percent, considered themselves as Democrat, while 28 percent considered themselves Republican,” he said.

“Yet, they found that Donald Trump was more likely to be the person who would be able to end the Palestine-Israel conflict.”

The fact that “the person that’s closer to the aggressor” is seen as more likely to resolve the conflict, is “kind of paradoxical in a sense,” Ali Ahmad added.

Further complicating the picture, more than one-third of respondents expressed equal support for both a two-state solution and a one-state model, where Israelis and Palestinians share equal rights.

As Haboush said on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show,” the Palestinian issue, while important, does not entirely overshadow other regional concerns.

He argued that people are still deeply invested in what happens in the Middle East, particularly the situation with Iran, highlighting his belief that Arab Americans supposedly wanting a more “hawkish approach” over a diplomatic one “wasn’t 100-percent accurate.”

Haboush said that although foreign policy is relevant, the 2024 election will likely be driven by domestic issues that deeply resonate with Arab American voters, such as the economy, border control and discrimination. The survey, designed to provide clearer insights into Arab American priorities, reveals a much more nuanced picture than anticipated.

“If you look domestically, the voter base would traditionally align with the conservative party,” Haboush said. “Even when you look at foreign policy, I thought a lot (of people) preferred this more hawkish approach, yet the poll says a little bit otherwise.”

He also pointed out that the younger generation of Arab Americans, many of whom have been vocal on social media about the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and may be first-time voters, adds another layer of complexity. “So, it’s just difficult to gauge,” he said.

With the election approaching and the race in a tight balance, Haboush said that both candidates are increasingly aware of the Arab American vote’s importance. This has been reflected in growing media attention to the demographic, as campaigns focus on undecided voters in key battleground states.

“The mainstream media in the US don’t understand the diversity of the Arab American community,” he said. “For decades, the Arab American has just been portrayed as a victim of war and conflict immigration.

Haboush criticized the media for selective coverage, saying that outlets “cover the Arab American polling in great detail (because) it fits into some sort of narrative … (but) don’t see the productive role that they’ve played generation after generation in this country, and a number of factors playing to that.”

The full survey, set to be released in the coming days, promises more detailed insights into Arab American voting patterns and the issues shaping their decisions, on one of the most anticipated elections in recent history.

As the US prepares for a head-to-head race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the Arab American vote may prove more pivotal — and complex — than ever before.

“The Ray Hanania Radio Show” airs every Thursday on the U.S. Arab Radio Network on WNZK AM 690 Radio in Michigan at 5 p.m. EST, with a rebroadcast the following Monday. The show, sponsored by Arab News, is also available via podcast at ArabNews.com.rayradioshow and Facebook.com/ArabNews.
 

 


India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester
Updated 13 sec ago
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India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester
  • Relations soured when ex-PM Sheikh Hasina, toppled after uprising this year, fled to India
  • Bangladesh’s current government leader has accused India of destabilizing his administration

NEW DELHI: India’s top diplomat will head to Bangladesh Monday after the student-led revolution in August that toppled autocratic ex-premier Sheikh Hasina’s government in Dhaka soured ties between the two neighbors.
Hasina’s iron-fisted rule was strongly backed by India and the 77-year-old remains in New Delhi where she took refuge after her ouster, despite Bangladesh announcing it would seek her extradition.
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who is leading an interim government tasked with implementing democratic reforms, has condemned acts of “Indian aggression” that he alleged were intended to destabilize his administration.
Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal confirmed late Friday that his department’s secretary Vikram Misri would visit Bangladesh on Monday.
Misri “will meet his counterpart and there will be several other meetings during the visit,” Jaiswal told journalists in New Delhi.
Yunus, 84, faced numerous criminal proceedings during Hasina’s regime that her critics say were concocted to sideline one of her potential rivals.
He has been a vocal critic of India for backing Hasina’s rule to the hilt despite the mounting rights abuses seen over her 15-year tenure.
India for its part has accused Muslim-majority Bangladesh of failing to adequately protect its minority Hindu community from reprisals.
The arrest of a prominent Hindu priest in Bangladesh on sedition charges last month further added to tensions, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-wing supporters urging his government to take a more hard-line stance on Dhaka.
“We want to reiterate our position again that they have legal rights and we hope that these legal rights will be respected and that the trial will be fair,” Jaiswal said of the case.
Yunus’s administration has acknowledged and condemned attacks on Hindus, including during the chaotic hours after Hasina’s ouster, but said that in many cases they were motivated by politics rather than religion.
He has accused India of exaggerating the scale of the violence and running a “propaganda campaign.”
“They are undermining our efforts to build a new Bangladesh and are spreading fictitious stories,” Yunus said this week.
Numerous street demonstrations have been staged against India in Bangladesh since Hasina’s ouster.
Several rallies were held this week to protest an attempt by Hindu activists to storm a Bangladeshi consulate in an Indian city not far from the neighbors’ shared border.
India condemned the breach afterwards and arrested seven people over the incident.
Despite cratering diplomatic ties the two neighbors are key economic partners with with annual bilateral trade worth about $14 billion.


Apartment block in The Hague ‘partially collapsed’ after explosion: authorities

Apartment block in The Hague ‘partially collapsed’ after explosion: authorities
Updated 47 min 32 sec ago
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Apartment block in The Hague ‘partially collapsed’ after explosion: authorities

Apartment block in The Hague ‘partially collapsed’ after explosion: authorities
  • It was not known how many people could be missing nor what caused the explosion in the block of flats not far from the center of the city

The Hague: A three-story apartment block in The Hague partially collapsed Saturday after a fire and explosion, firefighters said, with first responders searching for people under the rubble.
“At this moment, the emergency services are busy rescuing and searching for people and fighting the fire,” said the city’s fire service in a statement.
It was not known how many people could be missing nor what caused the explosion in the block of flats not far from the center of the city.
According to local media outlet Regio15, several people had already been rescued from the scene.
Four people injured in the explosion had been taken to local hospitals, according to the fire service.
“The fire is releasing a lot of smoke in the immediate vicinity... Residents are advised to close windows and doors and turn off ventilation,” authorities said.
The city’s mayor Jan van Zanen was on site to coordinate rescue efforts, according to Regio15.
Homes on multiple floors appeared to have been destroyed by the explosion, said Regio15.
Early images from public broadcaster NOS showed several dozen firefighters tackling a large blaze and breaking down doors to gain access to the block.
A picture from local news agency ANP showed one person being led away on a stretcher into a waiting ambulance.


India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester
Updated 07 December 2024
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India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester
  • Sheikh Hasina’s iron-fisted rule was strongly backed by India
  • She remains in New Delhi where she took refuge after her ouster

NEW DELHI: India’s top diplomat will head to Bangladesh Monday after the student-led revolution in August that toppled autocratic ex-premier Sheikh Hasina’s government in Dhaka soured ties between the two neighbors.
Hasina’s iron-fisted rule was strongly backed by India and the 77-year-old remains in New Delhi where she took refuge after her ouster, despite Bangladesh announcing it would seek her extradition.
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who is leading an interim government tasked with implementing democratic reforms, has condemned acts of “Indian aggression” that he alleged were intended to destabilize his administration.
Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal confirmed late Friday that his department’s secretary Vikram Misri would visit Bangladesh on Monday.
Misri “will meet his counterpart and there will be several other meetings during the visit,” Jaiswal told journalists in New Delhi.
Yunus, 84, faced numerous criminal proceedings during Hasina’s regime that her critics say were concocted to sideline one of her potential rivals.
He has been a vocal critic of India for backing Hasina’s rule to the hilt despite the mounting rights abuses seen over her 15-year tenure.
India for its part has accused Muslim-majority Bangladesh of failing to adequately protect its minority Hindu community from reprisals.
The arrest of a prominent Hindu priest in Bangladesh on sedition charges last month further added to tensions, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-wing supporters urging his government to take a more hardline stance on Dhaka.
“We want to reiterate our position again that they have legal rights and we hope that these legal rights will be respected and that the trial will be fair,” Jaiswal said of the case.
Yunus’s administration has acknowledged and condemned attacks on Hindus, including during the chaotic hours after Hasina’s ouster, but said that in many cases they were motivated by politics rather than religion.
He has accused India of exaggerating the scale of the violence and running a “propaganda campaign.”
“They are undermining our efforts to build a new Bangladesh and are spreading fictitious stories,” Yunus said this week.
Numerous street demonstrations have been staged against India in Bangladesh since Hasina’s ouster.
Several rallies were held this week to protest an attempt by Hindu activists to storm a Bangladeshi consulate in an Indian city not far from the neighbors’ shared border.
India condemned the breach afterwards and arrested seven people over the incident.
Despite cratering diplomatic ties the two neighbors are key economic partners with an annual bilateral trade worth about $14 billion.


Trump returns to world stage at Notre-Dame reopening in Paris

Trump returns to world stage at Notre-Dame reopening in Paris
Updated 07 December 2024
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Trump returns to world stage at Notre-Dame reopening in Paris

Trump returns to world stage at Notre-Dame reopening in Paris
  • Macron aims to mediate between Trump and Europe
  • Trump’s visit seen as symbolic return to global stage

WASHINGTON/PARIS: US President-elect Donald Trump returns to the world stage on Saturday to join leaders for the reopening of the Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris, still a private citizen but already preparing to tackle a host of international crises.
It will be Trump’s first trip overseas since he won the presidential election a month ago and it could offer French President Emmanuel Macron an opportunity to play the role of mediator between Europe and the unpredictable US politician, a role the French leader has relished in the past.
The two are expected to meet on the sidelines of Saturday’s visit. While no agenda for their talks has been announced, European leaders are concerned that Trump could withdraw US military aid to Ukraine at a crucial juncture in its war to repel Russian invaders.
Macron is a strong supporter of the NATO alliance and Ukraine’s fight, while Trump feels European nations need to pay more for their common defense and that a negotiated settlement is needed to end the Ukraine war.
“Mr. Macron is repeating his personalized approach which had some limited success during Mr. Trump’s first term. Macron knows Mr. Trump greatly appreciates the pomp, circumstance and grandeur of state and he provides it to him in abundance,” said Heather Conley, senior adviser to the board of the German Marshall Fund, which promotes US-European ties.
Trump will join dozens of world leaders and foreign dignitaries for the ceremony reopening Notre-Dame Cathedral 5-1/2 years after it was ravaged by fire.
It was unclear whether Trump would meet other leaders besides Macron. The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for details.
While Trump is due to be sworn in as US president only on Jan. 20, he has already held discussions with a number of world leaders, and members of his team are trying to get up to speed on a burgeoning number of world crises, including Ukraine and the Middle East.
Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, and Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, met on Wednesday in Washington with Ukraine envoy Andriy Yermak, leading to speculation that a meeting between Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky might be in the offing in Paris.
Trump, a Republican, was in power when Notre-Dame burned in 2019. He lost his 2020 reelection bid to Democrat Joe Biden but on Nov. 5 defeated Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president, to win back the presidency.
“Symbolically, both Mr. Trump’s presidency and Notre-Dame have been restored in approximately the same time period. His visit to Paris is also the opening salvo of his return to the world stage, further diminishing the final days of the Biden administration,” Conley said.
Biden’s wife, first lady Jill Biden, will represent the United States at the Notre-Dame reopening.

GLOBAL SPECTACLE
Trump will get plenty of worldwide buzz standing alongside other world leaders. He visited France four times while president from 2017-2021, including D-Day anniversary ceremonies in 2019.
“Trump will be seen throughout the world in potentially a statesman-like position,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye.
“It’s not images of him at Mar-a-Lago,” Heye said, referring to the Florida home where Trump has spent the bulk of his time since the election. “This is the biggest event of the world and he’ll be peer-to-peer with other leaders.”
Observers will be watching how Trump and Macron interact. The two men have endured ups and downs in their relationship over the years.
Macron invited Trump to the Bastille Day military parade in Paris in July 2017, a spectacle that inspired Trump to order up his own military parade in Washington to mark America’s Independence Day in 2019.
Trump hosted Macron at a White House state dinner in 2018 but a year later the two quarreled over comments Macron made about the state of NATO.
“Trump coming to Paris is a ‘good coup’ by Emmanuel Macron,” said Gerard Araud, France’s former ambassador to Washington. “It is indispensable to have a direct relationship with the only man who counts in the Trump administration, Trump himself.”
Macron, who has just over two years left as president, pursued a non-confrontational approach toward Trump during the latter’s first term, hoping that by engaging with him he could win concessions.
But as the years passed, policy decisions on climate, taxation and Iran in particular caused friction between the two leaders. By the end it was a more fractious relationship.
Clashes most likely lie ahead, fueled by Trump’s desire to impose sweeping tariffs on Europe and other US trade partners, and disagreement over how to handle the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
(Reporting by Steve Holland; additional reporting by John Irish in Paris; editing by Ross Colvin and Howard Goller)


Ghanaians go to the polls with the backdrop of the worst economic crisis in a generation

Ghanaians go to the polls with the backdrop of the worst economic crisis in a generation
Updated 07 December 2024
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Ghanaians go to the polls with the backdrop of the worst economic crisis in a generation

Ghanaians go to the polls with the backdrop of the worst economic crisis in a generation
  • Ghana used to be a poster child for democracy in the region but in recent years has struggled with a profound economic crisis, including surging inflation and a lack of jobs

ACCRA: Voters in the west African nation of Ghana will cast their ballots Saturday in a general election poised to be a litmus test for democracy in a region shaken by extremist violence and coups.
Some 18.7 million people are registered to vote in presidential and legislative elections but the two main candidates offer little hope for change for the nation. Ghana used to be a poster child for democracy in the region, but in recent years has struggled with a profound economic crisis, including surging inflation and a lack of jobs.
At a time when democracy in western Africa is threatened by coups, Ghana has emerged as a beacon of democratic stability with a history of peaceful elections. It had also been an economic powerhouse, priding itself on its economic development.
But recently that has been changing: Eighty-two percent of Ghanaians feel their country is headed in the wrong direction, according to an opinion poll released by Afrobarometer, a research group, earlier this year.
Although 12 candidates are running to become Ghana’s next president, Saturday’s election — like previous ones since the return of multiparty politics in 1992 — has emerged as a two-horse race.
Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia is the candidate of the New Patriotic Party, or NPP, government that has struggled to resolve the economic crisis. He faces off against former President John Dramani Mahama, the leader of the main opposition party National Democratic Congress, or NDC. He was voted out in 2016 after failing to deliver on promises for the economy.
The NDC prides itself as a social democratic party, while the ruling NPP tags itself as leaning to the right. But in fact, analysts and voters said, the programs of their presidential candidates do not differ in a significant way.
Two hundred seventy-six members of parliament will also be elected Saturday. The ruling NPP party and the main opposition NDC each have 137 members in the 275 member legislature, with one independent member who has been voting mostly along with the ruling party. One more constituency will be allowed to vote in this election, bringing the number of deputies to 276.
In their final campaign rallies Thursday, both candidates made a last push to pitch their political parties as the answer to Ghana’s economic woes.
Bawumia, 61, an Oxford-educated economist and former deputy governor of the country’s central bank, promised to build on the outgoing administration’s efforts and stabilize the economy.
Mahama, 65, on the other hand, restated his promise to “reset” the country on various fronts. “We need to reset our democracy, governance, economy, finances, agriculture, infrastructure, environment, health sector, and all that we hold dear as a people,” the former president said.
Across the the capital of Accra, the mood for the election has been upbeat in posters and billboards with bikers displaying stunts, political rallies on the streets, election jingles and songs blasting from public speakers.
But the concern for many is also palpable for the key thing at stake: The country’s ailing economy, which has been challenged on various fronts in recent years.
The country defaulted on most of its foreign debt last year as it faced a worsening economic crisis that spiked the price of fuel, food and other essential items. The inflation rate had hit 54 percent by the end of last year and though it’s been coming down since then, not many Ghanaians can still tell the difference when they go to the market.
The chronic challenge of illegal gold mining — known locally as galamsey — has also been a major issue in the campaign and a source of concern for voters, triggering protests and criticism against the outgoing government.
Ghana is Africa’s top gold producer and the world’s sixth largest, but the commodity has been increasingly mined illegally as people become more desperate to find jobs in an economy that has been crumbling. The mining has polluted rivers and other parts of the environment despite government actions to clamp down on the practice.