US-Saudi ties are the cornerstone of Trump’s Mideast policy

When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the White House to meet with US President Donald Trump this week, there will be no shortage of issues for the two leaders to discuss. Follow-up on the robust bilateral cooperation frameworks in economics and technology, including artificial intelligence — outlined during Trump’s visit to the Kingdom in May — is sure to be on the agenda, as are still-unresolved thorny regional security issues, such as Iran, Israel-Palestine and the continued threat presented by the Houthis in Yemen.

A top priority for Saudi Arabia will be some sort of security guarantee or defense pact from the US — something Riyadh has been seeking for several years. In March 2023, following Saudi Arabia and Iran’s renewal of diplomatic ties in a deal announced by China in Beijing, top Saudi officials ramped up their long-standing efforts to secure a defense pact with the Biden administration. It showed just how skeptical Saudi Arabia still was about Tehran’s intentions, particularly given the threats presented by Iran’s network of partners like the Houthis, Hezbollah and various militias in Syria and Iraq in the so-called Axis of Resistance at the time.

But that was then and this is now. The regional landscape has changed considerably. Iran suffered devastating blows to its military capacities and nuclear program in the 12-day war in June that Israel prosecuted with an assist from the US. In 2024, Iran saw its decades-long investments in Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria collapse, undercutting Tehran’s regional strategy and bringing it to its weakest and most vulnerable point in decades.

But while Iran may be down, it certainly is not out. It still retains significant capacity to wage regional attacks both directly and through its own partners across the region, which is a main reason why Saudi Arabia continues to seek a US security pact.
Another reason is Israel’s strike targeting Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, in September. This attack sent shockwaves across the region — particularly among US allies in the Gulf.

One region of the world that President Trump has prioritized in both word and action is the Middle East.

Brian Katulis

The fact that the Trump administration was either unwilling or incapable of stopping the strike added more skepticism to the security umbrella the US was providing to regional partners.
Regional states sprang into action. Qatar hosted an extraordinary summit of leaders from across the Arab and Muslim worlds — notably including Iran — to express solidarity with Qatar and condemn the Israeli strike. But ultimately, the summit’s communique was heavy on rhetoric and light on action.

What they did do was agree to reinforce intelligence sharing and plans for joint defense, including ballistic missile early warning systems, signaling a step toward greater interoperability and integration of defenses — something that the US has been encouraging for years. Saudi Arabia also signed a mutual defense agreement with Pakistan — another sign that countries in the region are looking to diversify their security ties to address emerging threats.

But perhaps the most consequential outcome of the Israeli strike was the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal in early October. The Trump administration moved quickly to reassure Qatar of its security relationship, and it also used its displeasure with Israel’s strike against Qatar as leverage to get Benjamin Netanyahu to finally agree to the deal. Trump even got Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar for the strike.

Part of America’s reassurance to Qatar came in the form of an executive order providing a security guarantee in late September. “The United States shall regard any armed attack on the territory, sovereignty or critical infrastructure of the state of Qatar as a threat to the peace and security of the United States,” the order stated.

It is committed to taking “all lawful and appropriate measures — including diplomatic, economic and, if necessary, military — to defend the interests of the United States and of the state of Qatar and to restore peace and stability.”

While an executive order like this is an important statement, it is not generally viewed as having the same weight and importance as a security guarantee provided in a formal treaty that requires congressional approval. But the fact that the Trump administration moved rapidly to offer this reassurance to Qatar was a sign that it understood just how much Israel’s military strike had undermined confidence in America’s security umbrella.

Therefore, the crown prince’s visit to Washington offers an opportunity for the two countries to deepen ties across multiple fronts. The main purpose of this visit is to continue building on the deals agreed upon across multiple fronts during Trump’s May visit to Saudi Arabia.

However, no cooperation framework will be effective without providing Saudi Arabia — and the broader region — with a solid security foundation. Here, the security guarantee Trump issued to Qatar could serve as a template for what Saudi Arabia and the US will do in the coming weeks.

Despite growing concerns about America’s reliability and stability in recent years, the US remains Saudi Arabia’s preferred strategic partner. It has the strongest and most capable military in the world and an unrivalled network of security partners in the Middle East that can serve as a force multiplier in Saudi Arabia’s defense, just as it did in 1990-1991, when Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, invaded Kuwait. Other global competitors, like China or Russia, do not come close to the commitments America has made and the capabilities it continues to bring to the region to enhance security, despite recent skepticism and doubt.

The first nine months of the second Trump administration have been marked by considerable uncertainty from the US on many fronts, particularly in domestic policy issues. But one region of the world that President Trump has prioritized in both word and action is the Middle East, where many big policy questions like Iran and Israel-Palestine remain unresolved.

The US-Saudi bilateral relationship has become a cornerstone of Trump’s overall Middle East policy, which is why we can expect continued steps to deepen those ties.

• Brian Katulis is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, specializing in US foreign policy and national security. He hosts the MEI podcast series “Taking the Edge Off the Middle East” and authors the column “Making Sense: A Regular Take on US Foreign Policy.” His career also includes significant experience at the National Security Council, the US Department of State, and the US Department of Defense. X: @katulis
• This article was first published in Al Majalla.