Palestinians gloomy and skeptical but not without hope

We should be under no illusion that the postwar journey toward rebuilding Gaza will be smooth. There is not even a guarantee that the war will not resume. Still, there are sufficient indications of an international commitment, more so than for a long time, to move in this direction. Yet it remains a mammoth task to convince both sides that there is a path to peace, coexistence and reconciliation.

On the Palestinian side, there is, not surprisingly, much gloom and skepticism. A public opinion poll published by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research last month found that 70 percent do not believe that the Trump plan will lead to a Palestinian state within the next five years, while 60 percent are doubtful it will permanently end the war. This deep-seated sense of uncertainty is derived from bitter experience, considering that it has taken two years to end the unprecedented, huge-scale carnage in Gaza and to impose a ceasefire, despite which Israel is continuing to kill Palestinian civilians.

Naturally, the mood among Palestinians is somber, but also defiant and, most definitely, not unhopeful. After all, they have shown remarkable resilience for many decades, long before this war, and even more so throughout it. Some of the findings in this survey will not make pleasant or easy reading in Israel and probably will not be welcome to those keen to be part of bringing this conflict to a peaceful end. However, opinion polls are an essential tool for informing us of the state of affairs at a specific point in time, serving in this case as a warning sign and helping decision-makers to devise policies that could shift public opinion in the desired direction.

Naturally, the mood among Palestinians is somber, but also defiant and, most definitely, not unhopeful

Yossi Mekelberg

It appears from the findings that there are substantial differences on most issues between those who live in the West Bank and those in Gaza. This is only to be expected after nearly two decades of physical and ideological separation between the two territories. Most of those who reside in either had not even been born when the 2007 civil war between Fatah and Hamas took place and Israel imposed a harsh blockade on Gaza. Their interaction has been limited and their experiences have been very different, despite both being occupied.

What might need more examination is why West Bankers are more pessimistic about the Trump plan than their brethren in Gaza. It might be the case that those who experienced the most horrific two years, with lives lost, injury and destruction in every single family, are holding on to the faintest of hope that things can only get better.

Moreover, how they perceive success is different, as the ceasefire in Gaza has already reduced, although disturbingly not completely eliminated, the violence and led to a reduction in deaths, while enabling more humanitarian aid to enter the enclave. On the other hand, the ceasefire has made little difference to the daily lives of those who live in the West Bank and what they are witnessing is a constant increase in settler terrorism and the expansion of settlements, all carried out with complete impunity.

Over the many years of living under a brutal Israeli occupation, Palestinians have encountered failed peace processes, a leadership that has badly let them down and an international community that looks the other way while all of this is taking place. The result of this, as transpires in this survey, is that 53 percent oppose the two-state solution, against 45 percent who support it, with a slight increase in support over the last few months.

Those are not extremely disheartening figures, as they show there is a solid minority that supports this solution and recognizes that, despite past failures, the only way forward is a historic compromise with Israel. The task ahead is to convince more people on both sides of the Green Line of the value of a model of two-state coexistence without total separation.

The task ahead is to convince more people on both sides of the value of a model of two-state coexistence

Yossi Mekelberg

For this to happen, both sides need new leaderships that are diametrically opposed to the policies of those who rule them today. There is no reason for Palestinians to trust the current power configurations, whether of their Israeli occupiers or their own leaders in the Palestinian Authority or Hamas. Staggeringly, 85 percent in the West Bank feel unsafe and insecure, while the vast majority think that corruption is rife in the PA’s institutions.

Any peace agreement would require painful compromises in order to receive the people’s support and, for this to happen, the new leaderships must be trusted. Hence, there is a yearning in the West Bank and in Gaza to hold presidential and legislative elections at the earliest possible opportunity. However, it is clear that current Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is highly unpopular and, in a head-to-head contest with, for instance, Hamas’ Khalid Mishal, he would lose heavily. And if Marwan Barghouti stood, he would be the clear winner against any other candidate. This is food for thought for Israel as much as for the Fatah movement.

For Israel, the steady support for Hamas, greater in the West Bank than in Gaza, is bound to be disturbing. The relatively positive news is that, despite the Israeli response to the Oct. 7 attack, support for it has dropped from its peak of 71 percent early last year. It unfortunately feeds into the narrative in Israel that “there are no innocent people in Gaza,” but is also further evidence of the loss of empathy in both societies toward one another, with each incapable of recognizing the other’s humanity.

I cannot think of a more important ingredient in achieving a genuine, lasting peace agreement and, with it, reconciliation between the two peoples, than a shared sense of humanity and mutual empathy. Undoing the mutual demonization and dehumanization could also lead to the election of leaders who strongly believe in the value of peaceful coexistence, laying the foundation for creative ideas and including risk-taking for peace rather than war and oppression.

Leaders who listen to the public and internalize their concerns and aspirations will be key. Despairing or chastising the public for what they think, as much as ignoring their views, can only lead to repeating the mistakes of the past, which have thus far brought mainly suffering and misery.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg