Israel’s Somaliland play against Turkiye doomed to fail

The deterioration of relations between Turkiye and Israel has now extended beyond the borders of the Middle East and reached the Horn of Africa following Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. Last week, Israel became the first country to formally recognize Somaliland, describing the move as being in the spirit of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and a few Arab states. However, the decision sparked strong criticism from Turkiye and several regional powers, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which warned that it could destabilize the Horn of Africa.

Somaliland unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991 following the collapse of the central government after the civil war. But it has failed to gain recognition from either the UN or the African Union. The Somali government continues to reject Somaliland’s independence, considering it an integral part of its territory, and views any direct engagement with Somaliland as a violation of its sovereignty and unity.

Following the Israeli move, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohammed traveled to Ankara to meet his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although it was a scheduled visit, it took place at a highly critical moment. Turkiye is Somalia’s closest partner in the region and has invested heavily in the country for more than a decade through its political, military, humanitarian and development institutions. High-level leadership diplomacy and strong people-to-people relations have enabled Turkiye to emerge as a key actor in Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa.

In 2011, when Somalia faced one of the worst humanitarian crises in decades due to severe drought, Turkiye launched a nationwide aid campaign. That same year, Erdogan became the first foreign leader to set foot in Somalia in more than two decades. Five years later, Ankara inaugurated its largest embassy in the world in Mogadishu, where it appointed its first ambassador back in 1981 and maintained diplomatic presence there since then. These initiatives gave significant momentum to bilateral relations.

Turkiye is Somalia’s closest partner in the region and has invested heavily in the country for more than a decade

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Turkiye has since been involved in managing Mogadishu’s airport and seaport, establishing a military training academy and investing in sectors such as energy, trade, education and infrastructure. Today, Turkiye hosts a large number of Somali students. Several Somali ministers were educated in Turkiye and speak fluent Turkish, which makes the roots of the bilateral relationship even stronger.

But Turkiye’s support for Somalia has not come without cost. In 2013, its embassy in Mogadishu was targeted by Al-Shabab, a Somalia-based terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda, in an attack that killed several Turkish nationals. As well as its diplomatic staff, Turkish construction workers have also been attacked on several occasions. There have been systematic attempts to prevent the country’s development and let it remain as a fertile ground for terrorist activities. However, Ankara did not change its Somalia policy and maintained its presence on the ground to support the country’s development.

Moreover, between 2010 and 2013, when neither regional nor international actors were willing to address the dispute between Somalia and Somaliland, Turkiye stepped in as the sole mediator. Istanbul hosted conferences on Somalia in 2010 and 2012, bringing together leaders from both sides. These efforts culminated in renewed dialogue in 2013, when Somali and Somaliland representatives met in Turkiye after years of political silence.

Trilateral meetings were also held with then-Prime Minister Erdogan, leading to the signing of the Ankara Declaration in 2013. The declaration aimed to revive dialogue and establish a framework for advancing the peace process. As part of its role, Turkiye maintains a consulate in Somaliland and has a special envoy for Somalia-Somaliland negotiations, placing it in a unique position to engage with Hargeisa.

As part of its role, Turkiye maintains a consulate in Somaliland and has a special envoy for Somalia-Somaliland negotiations

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Turkiye is highly concerned about preserving Somalia’s territorial integrity, viewing the country’s stability as central to its Africa policy. Somalia has long been regarded as Turkiye’s gateway to the continent. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland poses a direct threat not only to Somalia’s sovereignty and unity but also to Turkish interests and investments in the country. The timing of the move appears linked to Israel’s broader strategy of challenging Turkiye on multiple fronts, from Gaza to Syria, as well as its long-term political and economic interests.

Several reports suggest that Israel aims to relocate up to 2 million Palestinians displaced by the war in Gaza to parts of the Horn of Africa. The Somali president warned that such a move would “open a box of evils” and accused Israel of attempting to “export its problem in Gaza” to the region. Citing Somali intelligence, the president stated that Somaliland allegedly accepted three conditions in exchange for Israeli recognition: the resettlement of Palestinians, the establishment of an Israeli military base along the Gulf of Aden and Somaliland’s participation in the Abraham Accords.

Meanwhile, Somalia, as a member of the Arab League, does not maintain diplomatic relations with Israel. Tel Aviv’s move appears designed to secure a strategic foothold on both sides of the Bab Al-Mandab Strait and comes amid reports that Turkiye and Somalia have been planning to establish another military base in Las Qoray, a port with direct access to the Red Sea.

However, as has often been the case, Israel is pursuing a highly controversial policy that risks destabilizing an already-fragile region and deepening divisions in a country that has suffered from fragmentation for decades. Rather than contributing to security, this misguided decision threatens to open a Pandora’s box in the Horn of Africa, creating fertile ground for further instability, terrorist activity and disruptions to maritime security in the Red Sea. Any policy that threatens the security of a nation is, as always, doomed to fail.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz