EU must urgently solve its internal issues

Between a rock, a hard place and a sword. This probably best describes the strategic posture of Europe relating to the US, Russia and China. Following President Donald Trump’s hard truths to European heads of state last year and his even rougher treatment in the past month, Europe now finds itself in search of strength and direction. Its reactions lack depth and appear erratic at this stage, ranging from disdain of the US’ opening of negotiations with Russia, which has been labeled a mortal enemy, to fumbling its approach to China. Europe is making clumsy and chaotic moves — behavior that resembles a child pouting because he was not invited to a birthday party and is now trying to find new friends.

At the same time, Europe is seeking new avenues to showcase its influence. The EU and India this week announced a landmark free trade agreement that cuts tariffs on most goods and opens up services and investment on both sides. Even if it took decades to negotiate and is strategic, strengthening EU-India ties, the political framing of it aimed to highlight a successful diversification away from overreliance on other global powers. The effervescent announcement was to state that the EU has another way forward. But the reality is that Europe’s prosperity, stability and security will not come from a trade deal with India, it will need to come from within.

Europe needs to urgently rediscover its industrial innovation and strengthen its defense capabilities if it is to remain a credible global power. Years of underinvestment, regulatory fragmentation and dependence on external suppliers have weakened strategic sectors, from advanced manufacturing to energy, semiconductors and military equipment. Europe must move faster, especially on security and defense. If it wants to protect its international status and future, it must bring back competitiveness, put resilience at the forefront and break down regulations. However, the consensus that created the EU is being shaken to its core.

Europe’s prosperity, stability and security will not come from a trade deal with India, it will need to come from within

Khaled Abou Zahr

To start with, the Germany-France relationship, which was the engine that powered Europe for decades, is broken and now does not work. Their visions clash on nearly every point: from energy to trade and foreign policy to defense. Paris and Berlin seem to disagree on everything. For every decision that is aligned, there are three disagreements. No matter how hard they try to project an entente in front of the media, long gone are the days of President Francois Mitterrand and Chancellor Helmut Kohl holding hands or Konrad Adenauer and Charles De Gaulle embracing at Colombey-les-deux-Eglises. This is very visible in terms of Europe’s common defense projects, which are blocked and where corporate interests clash directly.

The other point is that Europe is also changing from within. While in the past, France was well on top in terms of economic, industrial and political power, it is now being debased.  While France’s economy was about 65 percent bigger per capita than Poland’s 15 years ago, it is now only 20 percent and they are expected to be equal by 2035. This means that if Europe’s political power is based on economic power, the current decision-making structure will not work for much longer.

The core of the issue is defense and sovereignty. And France and Germany are falling victim to the EU’s decision-making process, just as the rising powers want their say. So, who decides? Who builds? Who controls? Even as the Europeans are discussing building their own data centers, messaging applications and other platforms to maintain their sovereignty and security, we need to ask who will replace the existing American ones that they rely on? Would the Germans agree to leave it to the French? Would they be willing to hand over control to a European authority, one in which they might not be the chief decision-maker? These are the tough questions that need to be answered.

Stepping up to the challenge would consolidate the alliance with the US into a real and meaningful partnership

Khaled Abou Zahr

If we focus on defense, France has, without a doubt, the most advanced systems. Moreover, it has nuclear weapons. Would the rest of Europe accept that France takes the lead and stays in control? Also, why would France give up this advantage, which has been proven to be successful, and hand everything over, losing control and power, without knowing how it will work out? These uncertainties are today major hurdles in building a European defense system. Moreover, who decides on the enemy? The situation with Russia is a clear example.

While Trump’s declarations may shock Europeans, they are a necessary wake-up call. However, this should not push them to use Trump as an excuse to break the transatlantic alliance. They should stay and remain the pillar of Europe’s defense. Stepping up to the challenge would consolidate the alliance with the US into a real and meaningful partnership. Europe must not use this as an excuse to avoid facing the real challenge, which is to overcome national clashes on sovereignty.

While the sovereignty theme has become popular, there is a need to see what it means for each country. There is no doubt that the EU’s central decision-making process is becoming more dominant, especially in light of the weakening of France and Germany. France’s opposition to the EU-Mercosur deal shows how the collective interest of Europe can clash with domestic interests and how nations’ authority can be eroded. But if the pill was swallowed for trade, this would not be acceptable when it comes to defense and an implosion might be the outcome.

So, what is the alternative? We first need to understand that there are only two ways forward. Either the EU breaks up its political alliance and only functions as a trading bloc or it decides to move forward with a real European voice. I do not think Europe can do the latter unless it shifts toward being a confederation. Short of this transformation, we will have a hybrid structure that fails to build or set a strategic vision for the future.

Once again, no deal with India, China or even the US will solve Europe’s issues. It is from within that this needs to be solved — and there is an urgency to do so.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.