Turkiye and Armenia edging closer to normalization

Fourteen years ago this month, a media bus tour was organized to foster dialogue between Turkiye and Armenia. Journalists from both countries traveled together across the two nations with the aim of breaking down prejudices and creating space for dialogue. I was among the journalists who joined the tour, which began in Istanbul and ended in Yerevan. That two-week tour played a significant role in shaping my understanding of why Turkish-Armenian normalization matters and why people-to-people engagement is so important.

Looking at today’s momentum toward normalization between the two countries, developments that once seemed unimaginable are becoming reality. This week, Ankara announced that bureaucratic preparations for the launch of direct trade with Armenia had been completed and that work toward reopening the border between the two states was still ongoing. Since 1993, when the border was closed, direct trade has been suspended, pushing Yerevan into heavy dependence on Russia and Iran — both of which are currently engaged in wars.

Turkiye’s move was, therefore, welcomed by Yerevan. This decision is significant not only from the perspective of expanding trade and promoting economic connectivity, but also as a strong signal of political will aimed at removing the barriers that have long hindered peace and prosperity in the South Caucasus.

Normalization is the establishment of diplomatic ties and opening of borders. Before that, a reconciliation process is needed

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz was in Yerevan this month, becoming the highest-level Turkish official to visit the city in 18 years. During his visit, Ankara and Yerevan agreed to jointly restore the medieval Ani Bridge, which once linked Turkiye and Armenia along the historic Silk Road. While restoring the bridge is technically key for regional connectivity, its significance goes far beyond that. It is actually about the restoration of trust, hope and connection between two peoples on opposite sides of a river. I recall our visit to the Ani Bridge during that tour, when I could see Armenia so close but also so far.

The Turkish-Armenian normalization process began in 2022. Turkiye’s special envoy on the issue is Serdar Kilic, who describes it as a “trust-building” process rather than a “normalization” process. I strongly agree that it is a process of reconciliation rather than normalization. Normalization is technically the establishment of diplomatic ties and opening of borders; but before that can happen, a reconciliation process is needed.

Armenia and Turkiye also announced they are working on reciprocal scholarships for university students. Education is among the most influential tools of soft power and can promote long-term contacts that create human connections between states and peoples.

Since March, Turkish Airlines has been running flights to Yerevan. The two sides are also working on reopening the Kars-Gyumri railway that connects the two states. It has been unused for 33 years. Armenian officials said that Turkiye, Georgia and Azerbaijan are already connected by rail and that Armenia is the missing link in that chain. If restored, this rail link could become a vital point for regional connectivity.

Rebuilding the Ani Bridge, promoting direct trade between business circles, launching flights and focusing on educational diplomacy are all forms of soft power that can help pave the way toward formal normalization.

The efforts of nonstate actors have been ongoing for years to bring Turkish-Armenian relations to this point. Even with official diplomatic ties between Armenia and Turkiye nonexistent, civil society and media organizations on both sides have undertaken significant tasks. Their Track II initiatives have had a positive impact on Track I diplomacy, as can be seen in the recent developments. Once formal diplomatic relations are eventually established, Track II representatives — journalists, academics, businesspeople and students — will again play a key role in strengthening people-to-people ties.

The efforts of nonstate actors have been ongoing for years to bring Turkish-Armenian relations to this point

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

There is a strong political will to normalize ties but there are also significant external regional pressures to accelerate the pace of this process. Three key developments have pushed the rapprochement: the Russia-Ukraine war, the US and Israeli war with Iran, and the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan that was signed last year.

First, the Iran war has brought Turkiye, Armenia and even Azerbaijan closer. The frequency of telephone diplomacy among these states, along with their efforts to stay away from the fallout of the war, accelerated the Turkiye-Armenia and Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization processes.

Second, Yerevan is gradually distancing itself from Russia and increasingly engaging with Western institutions. Russia’s credibility as Armenia’s security guarantor suffered a significant blow during the Nagorno-Karabakh war, while Moscow’s war in Ukraine is also giving incentives to the Armenian leadership to shift its focus. Relations with Turkiye, a member of the EU Customs Union and NATO, have become more significant. Moreover, the EU and US are both strongly endorsing the normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkiye.

Third, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan last year took crucial steps to normalize ties with both Turkiye and Azerbaijan. He signed a peace deal with Baku and made the first official trip by an Armenian leader to Turkiye since 2009. Since assuming office in 2018, Pashinyan — who is seen as a pragmatic leader — has placed great importance on the normalization process. He has been trying to pursue a significant shift in Armenia’s foreign policy, with economic incentives playing a critical role. Within this context, the June 7 parliamentary elections are viewed as a critical referendum on Pashinyan’s policy aimed at strengthening Armenia’s connectivity with neighboring Azerbaijan and Turkiye.

Unlike previous normalization attempts, this time, in addition to goodwill, the escalating tensions in the region serve as a significant driving force. Like Turkiye, Armenia must navigate the volatile environment caused by the regional wars. Their shared concerns and mutual interest in the stability of the South Caucasus are rapidly paving the way toward normalization.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East.

X: @SinemCngz