A conflict generating conflict

The Syrian revolution that broke out in March last year has become the most destabilizing of all uprisings that hit the Arab region since the onset of the Arab Spring. This most protracted revolution has revealed one basic fact: The rebels are not expected to win against Assad on their own. And yet the conflict has turned into a sectarian one putting the country on the verge of a civil war.
Over the last days, the Syrian revolution has spilled across the border into Lebanon causing intense violent clashes and unnecessary death of several people. What is happening in Lebanon is a reminder that the unresolved crisis in Syria could easily lead to a regional conflagration that could draw in other countries. In other way, it is just a preview of what the future might hold if the Syrian regime continues its current policies unchecked.
The clashes started after the Lebanese authorities detained Shadi Mawlawi, an outspoken critic of Assad, on last Saturday. Along with five others, including a Palestinian, a Qatari, and a Jordanian, Shadi Mawlawi was charged with belonging to an armed group that executed military attacks inside and outside the country. Their arrest angered the Sunnis who support the Syrian uprising. Soon the clashes broke out between the Sunni fighters and some Alawites who back the Assad regime for sectarian considerations.
Undoubtedly, the Syrian regime’s bloody crackdown on protesters has aggravated a Sunni-Alawite tension in Lebanon thus triggering the violent clashes in Tripoli, the second largest city in Lebanon. Many Lebanese accuse Syria for instigating new clashes in Lebanon. The spill over of the uprising helps the Syrian regime argue that even in Lebanon the Sunnis kill the Alawites. Not surprisingly, the Sunnis in Lebanon support the revolution and sympathize with victims in the restive cities and towns across Syria. On the whole, the Sunnis hold the Syrian regime accountable for the assassination of Rafik Hariri back in February 2005 and for boosting Hezbollah’s status in Lebanese politics.
The gun battles, which pitted pro-Syria revolution against Assad supporters, can threaten the delicate peace in Lebanon. Assad has just stepped up his pressure on the Lebanese prime minister thus reminding all observers of Damascus’ subversive role in the past. In fact, the sectarian tension in Lebanon has been boiling for a while and the Syrian regime is adamant to exploit it to the end. Syria is trying to change the battle against reform into a sectarian battle especially after the Iraqi government led by Nuri Al-Maliki sided with the Assad regime. Interestingly, the support for the regime or the opposition to the regime is based on sectarian lines rather than on political convictions.
Syria has a history of dominating Lebanon. Syria exploited the civil war of the 1970s to assume a hegemonic status in Lebanon. And yet, the Syrian presence in Lebanon became subject to immense criticism in the wake of the assassination Rafik Hariri in February 2005. Assad caved in and pulled his troops from Lebanon.
All along the Syrian regime accused Islamists elements in Lebanon of supporting the majority Sunnis in Syria. Therefore, exporting the crisis to Lebanon could help Assad’s troops focus on the mission at hand which is finishing off the revolution.
If anything, the Syrian regime is emboldened by the inaction of the West. Thus far, the regime is not paying a heavy price for defying the wish of the international community and the United Nations. While Kofi Annan’s plan is supported by the international community, the Syrian government has been doing what it takes to undermine it. It does not take a genius to figure out that Assad has reached the no-return point. In other words, he could afford neither losing the battle nor implementing the six-point plan. Therefore, short of putting a clear high price tag, Assad regime will continue its policy of killing people and messing up in the internal affairs of Lebanon.
The inaction of the international community and the decision not to arm the opposition and the rebel enabled the Syrian troops to keep on the bloody crackdown on people while messing up with internal Lebanese affairs. The latest episode of infighting in Lebanon is in line with the Syrian strategy of entangling the region and disuniting his opponents. The local daily An-Nahar reported that Syria put a demand on the Lebanese prime minister to drop the disassociation policy vis-à-vis Syria. It remains to be seen how Hezbollah is going to conduct itself in the new crisis in Lebanon.