Combating China’s bid for hegemony in South Asia
Recent newspaper reports of China having entered into a secret agreement with Pakistan for constructing a third 1000 megawatt nuclear reactor at Chashma in Punjab province has stirred up a sense of urgency in Washington and New Delhi’s diplomatic circle to find suitable ways and means of preventing any breach of international protocol concerning nuclear commerce. This piece of small yet vital information, validated by the US intelligence, will put the spotlight back on Beijing’s geo-strategic ambition in South Asia that centres around maintaining nuclear parity between the so called arch rivals — India and Pakistan.
China has long aspired to be Pakistan’s nuclear benefactor and accordingly aided the country’s nuclear program at a time when stringent export control measures put into place by Western nations have made the procurement of materials and technology virtually impossible for non nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) signatory states. In return, the Pakistani establishment has helped the Communist apparatchiks to mend its roller coaster ties with the Western world especially the United States of America with unstinting devotion.
Above all, there is cogent evidence of Islamabad having played a significant role in bringing China closer to the Muslim Ummah.
The China-Pakistan bonhomie leaves the Indian military strategists with a potential two-front theater to deal with in the background of two crucial decisions taken in recent times by the outgoing administration of Pakistan People’s Party. Firstly, President Asif Ali Zardari’s government showed no inhibition in transferring management control of the strategic deep sea port at Gwadar, situated in the restive Baluchistan province, to the state-controlled China Overseas Port Holding Company.
Located right in the middle of the busiest oil shipment corridor, Gwadar — meaning air corridor in local Balochi dialect — is surely going to bring in a whiff of fresh air to the landlocked Central Asian region.
Beijing will not shy away from taking advantage of this warm water port to bolster its overseas mercantile trade; and to mitigate the separatist tendencies prevalent in the western autonomous provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet by way of economic prosperity that the Gwadar to mainland China trade route will bring about.
Secondly, Beijing’s decision to lend $ 500 million in loan to Pakistan for the completion of the 1600 km Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, in spite of Washington’s antipathy, is also a slap on India’s face whose strategic community has all along looked myopically at the Baloch horizon — seeking to exploit the native fear of turning into minority when outsiders lay their hands on the provinces’ myriad natural resources.
That the well-thought out strategy of subtly inciting this sub-nationalist sentiment and linking it to Baloch-Punjabi rivalry has failed to bring any tangible dividend to the Indian coffer is reflected in the gradual change of mind set among the local populace who are no longer loath to Chinese involvement in Gwadar. Moreover, left to himself, Afghan President Hamid Karzai is also keen on reaping the financial benefits that this future economic hub is going to offer to the region.
So what does India do now? A faltered strategic game plan has ensured that Pakistan land up in China’s lap while all the friendly neighbors in South Asia are gradually floating away from India’s grip. Opposing an Obama administration move to offer Islamabad a civilian nuclear deal akin to the Indo-US agreement tooth and nail has been a blunder undoubtedly. By concentrating all their energies on isolating Pakistan, the Indian foreign office mandarins actually ended up providing a lucrative workplace for China’s nuclear industry on a platter. Nearly 60 percent of the reactors under construction in the world today are located in China. The Chinese nuclear industry is investing billions of dollars to produce equipment indigenously for these and future units. They are also on the lookout for new export markets especially in the developing world and Pakistan provides them with a profitable platform for gaining experience in building nuclear power plants outside their frontiers despite using outdated technologies that does not conform to the highest safety standard. New Delhi should not be under the illusion that a US-led international effort will effectively ostracize China in the nuclear suppliers group for overstepping the guidelines that clearly bar member states from entering into commercial dealings with non-NPT member countries like Pakistan.
Washington is on a weak footing after having set a precedent with a waiver for India. Besides, China continues to be a key foreign policy tool of the State Department in containing volatility in Korean peninsula and dealing with the Iran nuclear issue apart from being a major US trading partner, holding an estimated 1.2 trillion dollars of American government debt. Therefore, it would be more pragmatic for the Indian government to take a realistic approach on Pakistan’s energy requirements. It is essential to avert a future conflict in the subcontinent which will surely be over the sharing of river waters that Islamabad so desperately relies on for power generation to meet an ever rising domestic demand.
India playing a decisive role in securing a civilian nuclear deal for Pakistan with adequate safeguards will not only help solve a progressive crisis getting worse with each passing day for the ordinary Pakistani citizens but also pave the way for winning the hearts and minds for generations to come.
Nothing could match such a confidence-building measure in bridging the yawning trust deficit between the two neighbors at loggerheads, perpetually.
