Egyptian crisis puts Mideast in a quandary
The dramatic changes in Egypt, the Middle East’s most populous country, have riveted all of Egypt’s neighbors. In Egypt itself, along with celebrations, there was concern about the future of the country.
Overnight there was more violence as deposed President Muhammad Mursi’s supporters clashed with police, leaving at least seven protesters dead in Alexandria, according to news reports. There were reports of more clashed in Cairo yesterday. Police also arrested journalists and activists associated with Mursi’s Freedom and Justice Party.
Mursi himself was being held at the Defense Ministry under guard. Egyptian media reported that he had refused to leave the country for another Arab country such as Yemen or Qatar.
Adly Mansour, the chief justice of Egypt’s constitutional court, was sworn in as interim president and promised to hold new elections. Many in Egypt remain hesitant that the army’s actions were the right thing to do.
“This is turning into a dictatorship,” Anwar Elsewedy who isn’t a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and didn’t vote for Mursi said. “I am not a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and I don’t like them, but it’s not clear what will happen next.”
Others were more optimistic, saying that the decision could bring stability and economic investment to Egypt.
“Removing the Muslim Brotherhood will attract foreign investors from the GCC states,” Mohamed Darwazah, an economic and political risk analyst said. “These countries were hesitant to invest in Egypt during the last year. Indicators show the stock market has been on the rise over the past few days and hopefully we are going to see more stability and prosperity for Egypt.”
Egypt’s powerful neighbor Israel kept a very low profile. Usually garrulous Israeli officials would not even speak off the record. But Israel’s security services and army have good relations with their Egyptian counterparts. Israel had had some reservations about Mursi’s government, and its close ties to the Hamas movement in Gaza.
Hamas, in fact, was formed as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, and ties with Mursi’s government were close.
Hamas is now concerned that Mursi’s overthrow in Gaza will mean fuel shortages, higher prices and international isolation. There were some 1,000 tunnels smuggling goods from Egypt to Gaza. For the past three weeks, the army has been trying to close those tunnels, and fuel and construction supplies are in short supply in Gaza.
“This is a nightmare for Hamas,” Mkhaimar Abu Sada, a professor of political science at Al-Azhar University said. “Egypt has been the lifeline of Gaza since the collapse of (former President Hosni) Mubarak’s regime. Egypt has supported Gaza politically and with economic necessities.”
Abu Sada says it is only the latest blow for Hamas, which violently took over Gaza in 2007. Since then, the Palestinian people have been separated, with the more moderate Fatah in control of the West Bank and Hamas in control of Gaza. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has not even visited Gaza.
Beyond the developments in Egypt, Hamas has taken its offices out of Damascus because of the civil war there. In addition, there are fears that the new ruler in Qatar will not be as philanthropic to Hamas as his predecessor.
There was some speculation that the overthrow of Mursi, and the resultant weakening of Hamas might lead to a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. Abu Sada says that would make sense logically, but it is unlikely.
“Hamas is not in a position to make concessions now and give up on their Islamist project,” he said. “They do not want to appear weak.”
Without this reconciliation, it is impossible to hold new Palestinian elections, which are long overdue.
