Convincing Brotherhood a challenge for mediators

IF current local, foreign and Arab mediation efforts fail to reach a compromise between the military-backed interim government in Egypt and the leaders of the largely Muslim Brotherhood supporters whose sit-in in two major crossroads in Cairo is entering its second month, chances are that the powerful Defense Minister and head of the armed forces Gen. Abdel Fattah El-Sisi would give the order to forcibly break up the gatherings immediately after the Eid holidays. This would be a grave strategic mistake that will result in many civilian casualties and will undoubtedly complicate the current political standoff.
Since the military unseated Egypt’s first elected president on July 3, the country’s new leadership found itself facing a major political question: How to end protests and sit-ins staged by former President Muhammad Mursi’s supporters, mainly in Raba’a Al Adiwiya and Nahda squares in Cairo. At least two confrontations between supporters and the military and police had resulted in hundreds of deaths and injuries, triggering international outcries. For the military, ending such protests is an important milestone in its attempt to implement a political roadmap that would end the transition and produce democratically elected institutions to run the country.
But the Muslim Brotherhood, whose top leaders sit in prison awaiting trials on charges of inciting violence and murder, refuses to budge down. It has been able to mobilize tens of thousands of supporters who occupied these main squares demanding the reinstatement of Mursi and the punishment of those involved in the coup.
American and European pressure has forced the military to postpone a decision to break up the sit-ins. Gen. El-Sisi believes he had received a mandate from the public on July 26 to end the state of lawlessness, chaos and terror that is gripping the country. But he reportedly agreed to conditions presented by Salafi leaders earlier in the week, including a promise not to evict protesters by force.
The challenge for mediators now is to convince the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood, and their supporters, to give up on their demand of Mursi’s return to power and engage the new leadership in dialogue to seek an acceptable formula to end the current impasse. Previous statements by US Secretary of State John Kerry and European officials on the July 3 overthrow of Mursi have dampened Islamists hopes that international, particularly US, pressure could turn things around in their favor.
Some leaders in the Muslim Brotherhood may have realized this by now. But a leading figure in the movement, Khairat Al Shatter, told US, European and Arab officials who met him on Sunday in prison that Mursi remains the legitimate president of Egypt.
On the other hand, former Prime Minister Hisham Qandeel, who met EU’s Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton last week, has proposed a six-point initiative that does not mention Mursi’s return. The initiative is close to that which the Salafi leader Mohamed Hassan presented to Gen. El-Sisi. In addition to allowing the Islamists to maintain their peaceful sit-ins, it calls for an end to vehement media campaign waged mainly by privately owned satellite stations against the Muslim Brotherhood, the release of key Muslim Brotherhood leaders and creating the right conditions for dialogue.
It is true that public opinion in Egypt continues to support the military coup and Gen. El-Sisi. Despite daily protests by Mursi supporters in many cities and governorates, the majority of Egyptians are relieved that the country is slowly moving toward normalcy. But this could change dramatically if mediation efforts fail and blood is shed in the squares occupied by the Islamists.
As much as the Muslim Brotherhood needs to accept the political realities in Egypt today and engage in dialogue, the military must honor its promise to stay away from the political process and allow for the formulation of a genuine settlement. This requires liberal, leftist and civil leaders to emerge from under the robes of the military to present their own vision for the future of Egypt that would assure the Islamists that they remain a fundamental component of Egyptian society and a recognized political force.
If the military continues to call the shots there is a real risk that the country will slip back to authoritarian rule, reversing the gains of the Jan. 25 revolution. Absorbing the Islamists is an important step, but what is even more important is for the army to step back and hand over responsibility of the country to political forces.
The struggle in Egypt now is not over democracy or even legitimacy. It is between supporters of a religious state and advocates of a secular one and democracy is not a necessary component of either of them. The political powers in Egypt must realize that their current alliance with army could deliver the country to an authoritarian rule managed by the very same military establishment that has ruled Egypt for decades!

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• Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.