US strike to change game

The expected American strike against the Syrian regime will surely deter Assad from using chemical weapons again. Obama’s reaction will be seen as an effort to protect the non-proliferation regime and to remind other countries that the use of weapons of mass destruction will not be tolerated by the US and therefore will not go unchecked.
Apparently, Assad had underestimated the ability of President Obama to take military action.
It seems that Syria and its allies were under the impression that Obama had been too obsessed with internal issues so he would not refrain from another military adventure in the Middle East.
That was, perhaps, the reason Assad’s troops in April crossed the red lines drawn by Obama.
Not surprisingly, Obama can no longer afford not to act on his red lines. On Saturday, he made it perfectly clear that a limited military strike in scope and time would be carried out but he preferred to consult with the Congress before any action. Perhaps, the defeat of the British government in the Parliament has discouraged Obama from carrying out an attack without having a clear green signal from the Congress.
And yet, many ponder whether the attack would be a game changer or it would change the balance of power on the ground in Syria. Observers argue that a limited attack in time and scope can weaken the regime and boost the morals of the rebels. Yet, it may not help change the balance of power nor put an end to the ongoing conflict. Indeed, the US strike is not part of a long-term American strategy of helping the moderate components of the Syrian opposition.
Seen in this way, if the attack is not part of a broader strategy then it is difficult to see an immediate transformation of the ongoing conflict.
To be sure, the American administration is still grappling with the rebels. On the one hand, Washington has a long-term objective to change the regime in Damascus, but on the other hand, the possibilities of anarchy and the empowerment of radical Islamists is a nightmare for America’s friends particularly Israel and Jordan.
Bluntly put, Washington has no interest in bringing about a quick collapse of the regime. All America is hoping for is to deescalate the war and force the regime to join a political process in the near future.
This perhaps is the only way forward for the Americans. But there is a possibility that the talks yield no constructive outcome. In this case, Washington hopes that its strategy of boosting the moderate elements of the opposition would pay off. It will happen only when the United States would think of adopting a different strategy to bring an end to Bashar’s regime.
With the international condemnation of the use of chemical weapons in Syria and the need to restore American deterrence, Washington can hardly think of any alternative but to strike. If the attack is to take place, Obama will depart his earlier position that his administration came to put an end to American wars in Arab and Muslim countries.
Of course, the result of an attack could, to some extent, not be foreseen. Despite the limited capabilities of the Syrian regime, it might decide to retaliate against US interests or its allies in the region. In this case, the US will find itself drawn to the Syrian swamp slowly but surely.
That said, the most likely scenario is that the United States will attack a number of selected targets and that the regime would not retaliate hoping that after a couple of days of attack Washington would stop and leave. It will not in the best interest of the Syrian regime to retaliate or provoke the American side to keep the military pressure on the regime.
Some in the Middle East doubt that Obama would not opt for a military strike at all. If this were to be true, then Washington would lose its leverage in other important issues particularly the Iranian nuclear program.
Apparently, Obama is not oblivious to the existence of skeptics. In a televised speech on Saturday, Obama said that the United States, “should take military action against Syrian targets”. He appealed to the Congress for the approval of his plans. Barring any new surprise, I think that Obama will order his forces to attack Syria.

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