Iran outreach to US faces tests at home
Now begins the harder task for Rowhani and his inner circle of Western-educated envoys and advisers, who are suddenly partners with the White House in a potentially history-shifting reset in the Middle East that could rival in scope the Arab Spring or Israel’s peace pact with Egypt. To build on the stunning diplomatic openings of the past days, Rowhani and his allies now must navigate political channels that make President Barack Obama’s showdowns with his domestic critics seem almost genteel by comparison. Possibly standing in the way of Rowhani’s overtures is an array of hard-liners, led by the hugely powerful Revolutionary Guard, that hold sway over nearly everything from Iran’s nuclear program to a paramilitary network that reaches each neighborhood. What’s ahead will measure Rowhani’s resolve. It also will test how much the Guard and its backers are willing to accept something other than spite and suspicion toward the US — and what it could all mean for the Guard’s regional footholds that include Syria and the anti-Israel militia Hezbollah in Lebanon.
At Rowhani’s airport arrival in Tehran, backers cheered and held aloft a placard calling him a “lord of peace,” while opponents shouted insults and chanted “death to America”. One thing is certain, however. The rapid-fire momentum of diplomacy over the past days — fed by Twitter’s no-breather pace — cannot be maintained.
The linchpin, as always, remains Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the gatekeeper for every key decision. He has so far given critical support to Rowhani’s overtures with Washington — calling for “heroic flexibility” in diplomacy — while giving the Guard a rare scolding to keep its distance from political developments.
But Khamenei also is not interested in tearing apart the country. Strong objections from the Guard and other hard-line factions would certainly get his attention.
Even hard-liners are offering mixed signals. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, who heads the parliament’s foreign policy and national security committee, said the telephone talk was a sign that Washington recognized Iran’s might. But the ultraconservative rajanews.com news website described the US as an unshakable foe and dismissed Rowhani’s talk with Obama as “strange and useless step”. The Guard is something of the Pentagon, CIA and Wall Street rolled into one. Its reach extends deep into Iran’s economy through investment arms and front companies. Guard leaders may insist that Iran can ride out any kind of economic squeeze, but the numbers say otherwise. Iran’s inflation and unemployment are rising and — perhaps more so than political crackdowns — the stumbling economy risks feeding widespread dissent.
This may be the overriding reason for Khamenei’s green light to Rowhani’s overtures. The Guard’s leadership also does not want to be seen as blocking a chance at easing the US-led sanctions.
• THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
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