Mindanao: The real test lies ahead
The Philippine government faces challenges implementing an accord aimed at ending decades of conflict in Mindanao, with the risk of violence from rebel groups not included in the deal and private armies in the area.
An independent body will conduct a census of rebels, inventory their weapons and schedule the phasing out of arms over the next two years, during which programs will be put in place to help fighters move to civilian life, according to the agreement signed Jan. 25 by the government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in Kuala Lumpur.
Ending one of Southeast Asia’s most entrenched conflicts could mark a key legacy for President Benigno Aquino, with four decades of insurgency killing as many as 200,000 people and stifling development of the southern region. Still, implementing the accord is “easier said than done” given rival rebel groups and private armies operating in the area, Rommel Banlaoi, Executive Director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research, said by phone. “The annex on normalization made a lot of promises. If they fail to deliver, that will create unmet expectations and trigger more armed violence in Mindanao,” Banlaoi said.
Lasting peace could bring investors to Mindanao and unlock mineral deposits worth an estimated $300 billion, political analyst Richard Javad Heydarian said. “It would unlock the natural resources and unleash the human capital of one of the most promising but underdeveloped areas in Southeast Asia,” said Heydarian, who lectures at Ateneo de Manila University. “Given Mindanao’s substantial untapped economic assets, such integration will further boost the Philippine economy.” Standard Chartered Plc economist Jeff Ng estimates a peace accord could boost Philippine gross domestic product growth by as much as 0.3 percentage point.
Mindanao accounted for 14.4 percent of Philippine output in 2012, according to government data. It’s also home to most of the country’s Muslim population, about 5 percent of the Philippines’ more than 100 million people.
Private armies will be disbanded, six rebel camps will become civilian communities and criminal cases related to the Mindanao conflict will be resolved through pardon and amnesty under the accord, the last of four needed to complete a comprehensive agreement. The peace panels also agreed on jurisdiction over waters to be included in Bangsamoro, the new autonomous Muslim political entity targeted by 2016. Disarmament will start after the final agreement and be completed before May 2016, when the first regional elections will be held at the same time as national polls, Ghadzali Jaafar, the MILF’s vice chairman for political affairs, said by phone Sunday. It will be gradual and “commensurate” with other steps, he said. “The apprehension will be on the honest-to-goodness implementation of the comprehensive agreement by the government.”
The government and Muslim rebels agreed on power-sharing last month, on wealth and revenue sharing in July, and on transitional arrangements earlier in 2013.Benito Lim, a political science professor at Ateneo de Manila University, called the process a short-term arrangement that doesn’t guarantee long-term peace. Aquino has asked lawmakers to pass legislation this year creating Bangsamoro, setting the stage for an autonomous Muslim region before his six-year term ends in 2016.
- THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
