The message from Indian exit polls

The fascination of Indian political parties (except the Congress) and the media with exit polls is astonishing, particularly when their accuracy has been consistently abysmal. In last three consecutive Indian general elections — 1999, 2004 and 2009 — exit polls gave much more seats to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) than it actually got.
In fact, in 2004 exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP and just the reverse happened and the Congress stormed into power ending eight years of its political wilderness. The same thing happened in the last election in 2009 too.
This time too exit polls have given bountiful results to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Their accuracy will be tested on May 16 when the results come out.
Six leading Indian media outfits conducted exit poll surveys on May 12. Five of them gave clear majority to the BJP-led NDA while the sixth one, Times Now, gave it 249, just 23 short of the half-way mark of 272 in the 543-member Lok Sabha. This TV channel has given 148 seats to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
The figures of the other five surveys for the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led UPA respectively are as follows: CNN-IBN (282 and 102), Zee News (289 and 100), ABP News (281 and 97), India TV (289 and 106) and India Today (283 and 120).
Another exit and post poll survey conducted by Today’s Chanakya in association with New 24 TV channel gave a resounding victory to the BJP/NDA and a humiliating drubbing to the Congress/UPA. According to this survey, the BJP alone will get 291 seats (plus/minus 14 seats) and the NDA 340 (plus/minus 14 seats). It has given a paltry 57 seats to the Congress and 70 to the UPA with an error margin of 9 seats in each case.
Even if the exit polls are once again way off the mark and even if there are many a slip between the cup and the lip for the saffron party’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, the enormous numbers these surveys have given to the BJP prove two things. One, the BJP is set to be back with a bang. Two, Modi has done what the BJP patriarch L.K. Adavni failed to do for the party in last two consecutive elections.
However, everything would depend on the numbers when the actual results come. The exit poll results, if true, are pointing to a new trend: That the Indian voter has matured and is becoming impervious to politics of caste, creed and regionalism that has been unfortunate aspect of Indian politics for decades. Regional parties have thrived since the past quarter century precisely because of these factors.
Another important message inherent in these exit poll results is the virtual decimation of the regional parties, the Left parties and the new political babe Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). An impressive performance by the BJP on May 16 won’t just be indicative of the onset of a Modi era in Indian politics but it would also sound death knell to regional satraps.
A strong electoral performance by the BJP won’t be just at the expense of the Congress but regional parties too. That is because the exit polls are giving anywhere between 150 to 200 seats more to the BJP than its tally of a mere 116 seats in the previous Lok Sabha. If it turns out to be correct then the BJP would be nibbling into not only the seat share of the Congress party but also regional parties.
Moreover, it would mean that one-party rule returns to India after three decades. It was way back in 1984 when the Congress, under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi and in the wake of the assassination of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, had won 400-plus seats. The BJP had won just two seats in that election. This would mean a sweet revenge by the BJP over Congress 30 years later.
One aspect of the exit poll results that seems to be absolutely right relates to AAP. By all accounts, AAP tally in the 16th Lok Sabha is going to be constricted to a single digit even though the party contested from 440 constituencies out of a total of 543.
This is a far cry from AAP leaders’ claims of winning at least a hundred seats. But then this won’t be because of the Modi factor. AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal’s strange and politically incorrect shenanigans are going to be responsible for the poor electoral performance.
Kejriwal bit much more than he could chew. Had AAP concentrated on just 50 to 100 seats, its victory quotient would have been much better. Kejriwal overstretched himself and his party beyond repair.
Now here is a postscript. The exit polls indicate a strong and stable government in India even if they are off the mark by a huge margin of 10 to 15 percent, something that should bring cheer to the Indian economy. But even if the exit polls prove to be a cock and bull story, they are not going to lose their luster for the increasingly mercenary Indian media. Even in the next general elections one will see a similar euphoria for exit polls.

• The writer is a New Delhi-based independent journalist and political commentator who tweets @Kishkindha.