India, China, and the belt and road initiative
The news of India quietly preparing to welcome Chinese investment in her sensitive North-Eastern periphery, in order to boost bilateral trade with China by at least 20 per cent within the next few years, reminded me of a communication I had with a renowned Russian security expert some time ago.
The gentleman, who also served as a minister dealing with his country’s external affairs, underscored the importance of forging honest economic cooperation between two rival powers sharing common strategic space in a globalized world, in order to prevent escalation of disagreement into conflict.
Indeed, New Delhi is following the same strategy to mend fences with its northern neighbour after the 2017 border stand-off. For the first time since the 1962 Sino-Indian war a growth-starved region, which remained out of bounds for Chinese companies primarily due to security concerns, is all set to see a flurry of economic activities.
Clearly, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s entente cordiale in the historic city of Wuhan last April made India’s current political dispensation climb down from its maximalist anti-China rhetorical position and tap into the enormous economic potential that Chinese investment can offer on a platter.
Tribes inhabiting the Indo-Tibet and Indo-Myanmar border areas maintained strong trade links within their extended neighbourhood. It is time that we dig into such age-old business-instinct to secure not only the future of India, but that of the impoverished region as well. And the best way to go about it is by making the China-conceived $900 billion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a cornerstone of the India-China-Pakistan trilateral axis. As Professor Wang Dehua, South Asia expert at the Shanghai Municipal Center for International Studies and an authority on the transition and growth in China-India ties, told me: “Opening up the North-Eastern market and trade routes for Beijing can be a prelude to India participating in BRI projects selectively in the days ahead.”
It is time that we dig into such age-old business-instinct to secure not only the future of India, but that of the impoverished region as well. And the best way to go about it is by making the China-conceived $900 billion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a cornerstone of the India-China-Pakistan trilateral axis.
Seema Sengupta
New Delhi has so far refused to be a part of this grand economic integration initiative - involving 65 per cent of the world’s population and one third of global GDP - because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under the BRI that passes through Pakistan- administered Kashmir, which India claims as its own. But with more and more nations, including Japan – a key contributor to Indian infrastructure development projects – and the European Union showing keen interest to harmonize and align with the ambitious scheme, India is gradually coming around to the viewpoint that the BRI, with all its ability to create a completely new value chain in global trade and commerce, can actually strengthen India's geo-economic interests. Most importantly, with China showing flexibility and readiness to rename CPEC in order to address India’s apprehensions and simultaneously expanding the project’s acceptability in the region, New Delhi has enough room for diplomatic maneuvering to cater to the sentiment of the domestic hard-line constituency – Modi’s principal electoral base. As revealed by a source in the Indian establishment, the Chinese are well aware of Modi’s political compulsion and therefore open to New Delhi connecting to the BRI from outside by pursuing free trade agreements with nations or blocs with whom Beijing has already signed transportation, customs cooperation, and quality assurance pacts. Moreover, the BRI’s Central Asia-West Asia corridor, running across the continent from China’s western region to Turkey, will benefit New Delhi immensely, if it is aligned with the International North–South Transport Corridor connecting Moscow with India’s commercial capital Mumbai. Indeed, successful convergence of India’s "Act East" and Beijing’s "Go West" strategic policies can be a win-win formula for the Asian giants, because China’s huge manufacturing surplus is in need a potential market like that of India’s – Asia’s third largest.
From geopolitical and geo-economic perspectives, the BRI, being a viable instrument to spur infrastructure development, generate jobs and boost people-to-people contact, can be a boon for South Asia. It has the intrinsic capacity to integrate the region economically through a grand garland of connectivity infrastructure and providing key links to BIMSTEC sub-regional group initiated and funded strategic projects. This in turn can usher a strong bond of regional cooperation and interdependence and could lead to a successful resolution of intractable disputes and complex geopolitical problems. Besides, the spurt in China-South Asia trade volume from $91.3 billion in 2013, post-CPEC launch, to $126.8 billion in 2017, and the inauguration of the China-South Asia Cooperation Forum will help bolster the endeavour to extricate millions out of abject poverty. Most importantly, infrastructure-deficient South Asia can reap maximum dividends if the regional inter-governmental organization SAARC’s agenda is synchronized with that of the BRI, and the project itself is adequately fine-tuned to make it an equitable and well-equipped medium, devoid of hidden debt implications, for catalyzing all-round growth in beneficiary nations.
– Seema Sengupta is a Calcutta-based journalist and columnist
