Go with the flow? Why migration poses difficult political challenges

Belarus’ recent weaponization of migration in an effort to pressure the EU has highlighted the challenge that human migration poses to modern governments and societies — a challenge that is likely to intensify.
Belarusian leader Viktor Lukashenko used state resources to assist migrants to travel to Belarus with hopes of crossing into the EU. Recently, his efforts created a humanitarian crisis on the border with Poland, with asylum seekers, including children, trapped in freezing conditions. Lukashenko hoped to use the issue to divide the EU and persuade Brussels to recognize him as president and lift sanctions.
Migration has presented a major challenge for the EU in recent years. Even before the 2015 refugee crisis involving Syrian refugees and other migrants, there were indications that Eastern European countries were some of the least accepting of migrants.
The refugee crisis reinforced that attitude in Eastern Europe and created a backlash against migrants throughout Western Europe. The crisis contributed to Brexit and the rise of far-right parties in many European countries.
Migration has also served as a key political wedge issue in the US, one of the Top 10 countries that are most accepting of migrants, according to a 2020 Gallup index, and with a long history of integrating immigrants from around the world. Nonetheless, Donald Trump successfully tapped into anti-immigrant sentiments in his rise to the presidency. The evolving crisis on the southern border continues to pose a challenge for the Biden administration.
The political challenge of managing migration is not just a Western problem. Along with several Eastern European countries, Malaysia, Thailand and Turkey made Gallup’s list of the 10 least-accepting countries. Several South American countries saw backlashes against an influx of Venezuelan migrants.
India is the world’s biggest source of migrants, but Indians have mixed attitudes toward people migrating to their own country. In recent years, India’s government pursued policies that privilege non-Muslim immigrants and made efforts to deport Rohingya refugees.
Several factors make migration a particularly challenging issue. The modern system of sovereign states is less than 100 years old. Globally, the concept of nation states with coherent identities and clear borders is still new and often deeply flawed in practice. Human migration, on the other hand, is as old as human history. The concept of sovereign states with defined borders is constantly rubbing up against the ancient trend of human migration. It is hardly surprising that this creates complicated challenges for modern governments.
Furthermore, migration is a fundamental human trait that often runs counter to another basic human characteristic: Identity. As Jonathan Haidt noted in his book “The Righteous Mind,” most people are “groupish,” identifying with a particular group and prioritizing its interests. Humans often fear that migrants might threaten their own group’s identity, cultural norms, prosperity, status or safety.

Humans often fear that migrants might threaten their own group’s identity, cultural norms, prosperity, status or safety.

Kerry Boyd Anderson

Some countries struggle with identity issues more than others, and thus might be more likely to perceive migration as a threat. Eastern European countries are still developing their post-Soviet national identities. Countries with an identity that is specifically based on a particular religion or ethnicity are also likely to struggle with the concept of immigration by other groups.
Group identity runs deep, which allows politicians plenty of opportunity to use potential threats to identity to gain attention and power. Lukashenko tried to use migrants against the EU, knowing that Europe is vulnerable to fears of migration. Trump successfully made immigration and group identity core parts of his appeal to many Americans. European far-right parties used migration and identity to gain increased power in recent years.
Countries’ history with migration also plays a role. In the Gallup index, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the US all scored in the Top 10 most-accepting countries. These four nations have a long history of integrating immigrants. Even though immigration is a controversial political topic in the US, Americans remain relatively positive about the role of refugees and immigrants in their country.
The nature of migration is another factor. People are more likely to feel positive about migrants entering their country when they come in relatively small numbers through a well-managed process. Sudden, large influxes of migrants in numbers that overwhelm government resources are much more likely to create resentment, as seen in Europe, particularly Turkey, following inflows of Syrian refugees and other migrants, and also seen in Latin American countries that experienced waves of Venezuelan migrants.
In today’s world, people’s reasons for migrating to another country are often complex and overlapping. They might be fleeing war and violence, while also hoping for better economic opportunities. They might seek to escape a combination of economic collapse, environmental disaster and insecurity. Sympathy for refugees who are fleeing extreme danger might be higher than for other migrants, but often it is difficult to distinguish between the two.
As governments struggle to manage modern migration, the challenges will intensify. Studies project that anywhere from hundreds of millions of people to a third of the planet’s population will migrate in response to climate change in the next 50 years.
Some politicians will continue to exploit migration and identity for their own purposes, but leaders who want to actually solve problems will seek ways to manage the reality of migration in an international system that was never designed to accommodate large flows of people.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. Twitter: @KBAresearch