Looming Israeli, US elections make Palestine breakthrough unlikely

The last time US President Joe Biden went to the Middle East on an official visit, in 2016, he was still a “heartbeat away from the presidency.” This time, he is a president well into his first term and due to face, in a few months’ time, America’s interim verdict in crucial midterm elections.
While on this trip, he will find a region that has changed significantly since 2016, but with many of the previous challenges remaining, if not exacerbated. His tour of the region as vice president was tricky, coming shortly after Washington agreed to the nuclear deal with Iran in a move that led to friction with a number of Gulf countries and especially with the Netanyahu administration in Israel. Iran’s adversarial policies are as pertinent to the stability and well-being of the region now as they were then. Similarly, the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict has no peaceful resolution on the horizon and, if anything, is more likely to implode.
But the Middle East is changing and one manifestation of this is that a new generation of leaders has emerged, with a different outlook on their countries and on world affairs. Biden’s visit will also crystalize for him who is in the camp that is determined to contain Iran’s adventurism, along with their readiness to put aside other differences to unite around this objective. A concern for him, however, is that among this generation is greater skepticism about America’s commitment to the region, leading to a concomitant erosion in America’s status and prestige among many of them, to which its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan last year only added another tier of distrust in Washington as an ally.
Much of the talk ahead of Biden’s visit was about the possibility of launching a regional air defense alliance that openly includes Israel when he meets with regional leaders in Jeddah. The logic of such an alliance — especially in light of the faltering talks between the US and Iran about returning to an amended version of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — is clear. And it has even more urgency as Tehran has, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, recently begun to enrich uranium using sophisticated centrifuges at its underground Fordow nuclear plant, a setup that can more easily switch between enrichment levels.
Strategically, it would be a triumph for the Biden administration to be the convener and coordinator of such a venture and would go some way toward restoring US leadership in the Middle East. America has a particular incentive to play this role as a result of the blossoming relationship between Saudi Arabia and China. This is not surprising, considering that, only last month, in the middle of a major war in Europe caused by Russian aggression, a NATO summit singled out China as the main long-term threat to the alliance’s members and their values, not Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Biden is sending a powerful message that his administration does not recognize Israel’s annexation of East Jerusalem.

Yossi Mekelberg

Every US presidential visit abroad is significant due to the very fact that it takes place, for the discussions conducted and the understandings that are reached, but also for some of the symbolic gestures of friendship. And one such gesture from Biden in his opinion piece in The Washington Post, entitled “Why I’m going to Saudi Arabia,” is that he will make the trip from Tel Aviv to Jeddah, flying directly between the two cities. In the Kingdom, “leaders from across the region will gather, pointing to the possibility of a more stable and integrated Middle East, with the United States playing a vital leadership role,” Biden wrote.
Nevertheless, Biden’s visit to Israel and Palestine was always expected to be a matter of symbolism over substance. His correct decision, although controversial in Israel, to visit East Jerusalem unaccompanied by Israeli officials sends a powerful message that his administration does not recognize Israel’s annexation of East Jerusalem or its claim that the entire city is the country’s capital. However, this act is not expected to be followed by any concrete steps by Washington to either advance the cause of a just and lasting peace or even to relieve the suffering of the Palestinians, who continue to live under occupation, under blockade or in exile.
It has been argued that the timing of this visit leaves Biden unable to exert any pressure on the current Israeli government or to make gestures of goodwill toward the Palestinians. In both America and Israel, crucial elections are just around the corner. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid assumed office only a few weeks ago and a general election has been called for November. Lapid is the candidate that Washington would like to prop up, which means that, in the illogical context of the relations between Israel and the Palestinians, any concessions made to the Palestinians might expose Lapid — and those who might partner him in a future coalition government — to accusations by the right that they are a soft touch who will cave in to international pressure. This is regardless of whether such moves to improve relations with the Palestinians also benefit Israel in preventing future conflict.
In the current discourse within Israeli society, any measure to ease the harshness of the occupation is not a vote winner, and neither will it be in the US midterm elections. Biden’s decision to visit East Jerusalem and meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has been criticized in some quarters of Israeli and US politics, while for the rest of the world it is the most obvious things to do.
There is no doubt that orchestrating with the Saudis a meeting of leaders of major Middle Eastern powers in order to consolidate their common strategic interests is a major achievement for both countries in containing Tehran’s destabilizing policies in the region. However, Biden, as US presidents before him, is unlikely to find the conviction and stamina to make a difference when it comes to edging even an inch closer to ending the Israeli occupation, ensuring Palestinians’ self-determination and human rights and, by doing so, bringing peace to both Israelis and Palestinians. This will leave the bitter taste of another missed opportunity, which is harmful for the Middle East as well as for America’s interests in the region.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg