How Sudan’s devastating war can be resolved in 2024

It has been nearly nine months since clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the powerful paramilitary group the Rapid Support Forces broke out in Sudan and there is still no sign of a resolution that could bring about an end to this devastating war. Despite attempts at ceasefires, the power struggle persists. This has unfortunately exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in the country.
Intense clashes in various parts of Sudan have caused hundreds of thousands of people to be confronted with the painful dilemma of either abandoning their homes or choosing to remain, risking injury or even death. More than 7 million people have been displaced due to the ongoing conflict in Sudan. About 1.5 million of them have sought shelter in neighboring countries. And nearly 9,000 people have been killed in the war.
Children are at particularly high risk as Sudan currently faces one of the largest displacements of children in the world. The conflict has recently spread to Al-Jazirah state, impacting its 5.9 million inhabitants, of which about half are children. UNICEF pointed out in December that the escalation in fighting in the state “reportedly forced at least 150,000 children from their homes in less than a week.” The UN agency added: “The eruption of fighting in Al-Jazirah means that more than half of the states in Sudan — 10 out of 18 — are experiencing active conflict.”
Sudan has also emerged as a focal point for mercenary fighters from various regions. Countries experiencing domestic conflict often become attractive to individuals who are seeking to participate in or support destabilizing activities for various reasons, including financial incentives and ethnic or ideological factors.
The country’s borders with other nations may also provide access for some individuals looking to participate in or influence the conflict. Weak governance or challenges in enforcing laws and border control measures can make it easy for fighters to enter Sudan and join armed groups without significant hindrance.
It is worth noting that Sudan has a history of civil wars and internal strife. Previous conflicts and the presence of armed groups have been shown to create a ripe environment, which fighters from other countries see as an opportunity to become involved. In addition, Sudan’s geopolitical position may make it a strategic location for fighters.
Finally, we should not underestimate the refugee crisis resulting from the ongoing war. The refugee crisis is already having a significant impact on the social, political and economic dynamics of various nations — especially those neighboring Sudan, such as Libya, Egypt, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Bringing an end to the war requires a concerted effort and the implementation of comprehensive measures.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Without the international community seriously addressing the conflict and swiftly achieving a resolution, the humanitarian situation and the refugee crisis are likely to escalate.
Bringing an end to the war in Sudan requires a concerted effort and the implementation of comprehensive measures in order to create a path toward lasting peace and stability for the people of Sudan.
First of all, it is critical to focus on the humanitarian crisis. The international community ought to mobilize humanitarian assistance to address the immediate needs of the affected population. This includes providing food, shelter, medicine, healthcare and education for displaced individuals.
But this also requires viewing the establishment of a credible ceasefire as an immediate necessity. All warring factions must commit to a cessation of hostilities, with confidence-building measures then implemented to create an atmosphere conducive to negotiations. International peacekeeping forces could be deployed to monitor and enforce the ceasefire, providing a buffer for the peace process.
Secondly, it is important that the international community becomes more engaged, as global involvement is paramount in resolving such a complicated conflict. The international community, including neighboring countries and regional organizations such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development — an eight-member trade bloc consisting of countries in East Africa — along with global powers, should actively engage in diplomatic efforts, as well as effective mediation.
Cooperation between the UN, the African Union and IGAD can play a crucial role in the mediation of peace talks. It is important to point out that a successful resolution necessitates the involvement of all parties and the establishment of a framework for a thorough and inclusive political process. The omission of any party with a vested interest in the Sudan conflict, be it a state or nonstate actor, may ultimately undermine the success of any negotiated agreement. Sustainable peace requires the political grievances underlying the conflict to be addressed.
Renewed peace talks in Saudi Arabia can be a viable path to ending the war. The Kingdom’s efforts to resolve the conflict currently represent one of the most promising avenues for de-escalation and potentially concluding the war in Sudan. May’s Jeddah Declaration, which commits to safeguarding the civilians of Sudan, is firmly grounded in international human rights law. It prioritizes the clear differentiation between civilians and combatants, guarantees the secure transit of civilians, safeguards medical personnel, facilitates the delivery of humanitarian aid to the population and endeavors to prevent the enlistment of children as soldiers in the war.
In a nutshell, the ongoing conflict in Sudan has brought immense suffering to the people of the country, displacing millions and creating a humanitarian crisis. Ending this war requires greater involvement from the international community and regional organizations, the engagement of all parties in negotiations to foster a sustainable peace and the mobilization of humanitarian assistance to address the immediate needs of the affected population.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh